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Nov 20th, 2010 (revised Dec 5th, 2011): 

All content (free end of day posts and premium content intra-day posts) are located on the new PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC Premium Blog.

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June 4th, 2010: Moving to a New Home

6:42am EST:  I have posted my pre-market update on the new PUG Premium Blog.   Going forward there will be a free blog post on the Premium Blog in the pre-market most mornings and a free post at the end of the day to wrap things up. There is a comments section under each post for discussion.  During the trading day, I will post password protected content for the paid premium subscribers.  To get accesss to the premium service, including intra-day commentary, chart updates and a link to my real-time chart feed the fee is very reasonable $75 per quarter (i.e $25 monthly rate).  For both the free and premium content, you can register to receive e-mail alerts from the blog as soon as I post an update.  This is a very helpful new feature that keeps the blog followers informed immediately of a new posting.

For now this old blog will be closed.  It's much easier for me to maintain the single new Premium Blog for both free and premium content.  I would like thank everyone who has visited and contributed here over the past year.  Please join us at the new blog to continue to build an informative and friendly trading community.

For anyone that is a blog operator, I would appreciate it if you would change the old link to this blog to the new blog link of:  pugsma.wordpress.com.  Thanks.

June 3rd, 2010:

5:07pm EST:   The SP-500 closed above the 13-day EMA of 1100 for the first time since early May. And the high of the day tested the 200-day SMA at 1106. There was also a bull cross on the MACD today (see the daily candle chart). The bias is upwards. The SP-500 is poised for a “gap and go” above the 1105 to 1115 resitance band and blow-out May jobs number may do the trick. I have the primary count as wave iii-(3)-1-[1]-P3. Wave (3) target is 1130 and a final target for this wave 1-[1]-P3 at 1150. The 1st alternate count is wave iii-(3)-A-[B]-P2. This A-[B]-P2 wave has the same 1150 target. Rallying above 1115 is the key for a intermediate term bullish bias, just as it was during the Feb 5th rally. With the failure of the triangle, I have removed the 2nd alternate count. On any down-side action tomorrow the key level to watch is 1088.

Visit the PUG Premium Blog for the EOD 15-min and 60-min Charts.  These are free at the end of every day.  And consider signing up for the intra-day premium blog posts.

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

10:30am EST:   ES Futures were in a very tight range overnight.  For the primary count, wave iii-(3), I'm watching the resistance in the 1105 to 1115 band on the upside and the wave i-(3) high of 1088 on the down side.  A cross under 1088 would be a wave iv into wave i over-lap.  The SP-500 and touched the 1105 resistance and since backed off to 1099.

June 2nd, 2010:

5:05pm EST:  Come take a look at the PUG Premium Blog.  I'm including the free public posts along with the subscriber based premium posts (password protected content) on this new blog site.   In the future I will likely migrate 100% to this new blog, as you can follow along there if your a free reader or a paid subsciber.  You can also sign-up for a free Word Press Account and join in the comments at this new blog site.  Also, consider becoming a Premium Subcriber so that you have access to all of the intra-day updates and real-time chart links.  It's only $75 per quarter ($25 per month).

5:03pm EST:   With the late day run to 1099 , it looks like we are in wave iii-(3)-1-[1]-P3 of the primary count or wave iii-(3)-A-[B]-P2 or the 1st alternate count (purple). Both counts are targeting the 1120/1130 area for wave (3) completion and the 1140 to 1150 area for wave (5) completion. There is some heavy resistance in the 1105 to 1115 band, so this wave iii-(3) is going to need some legs over the next 2 to 3 days to get through that area. The 2nd alternate count has been revised to a wave (4)-[A]-P2 triangle with a wave (5)-[A]-P2 targeting levels under 1040 once the triangle completes over the next 2 days. As always, my primary count is the most favored in terms of probability, followed by the 1st alternate and finally the 2nd alternate. Both the primary and 1st alternate are pointing to more upward price action over then near and intermediate term. And the 2nd alternate is point to more downward movement over the near term, but upward movement in the intermediate term. So the intermediate term trend is up by all three of my counts.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

8:47am EST:  ES Futures traded in a tight range 1067 to 1078 (1070 to 1081) overnight. The key levels to watch are 1065 and 1090 in the cash markets. A break below the 1065 gap and a fresh low below 1041 is very likely by the end of this week. Conversely, if 1090 can taken and held, then the next target is 1115/20.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:18am):

June 1st, 2010:

4:25pm EST:  Surprising weakness into the close with a fall to 1070. This could still be part of the c-leg wave (2), which has a 62% retrace target of 1065. A level of 1065 would close the 1065 to 1074 gap left open by the Thurs May 27th run from 1065 to 1103. Below 1065, I would tend to lean towards a new low below 1041 being set in the near term, which would mean that the 2nd alternate count (in red) is playing out. On the 60-min chart, you can see that the 1070 close today parked right on the Oct 2009 to May 2010 support line (in yellow). So once the again the SP-500 is back at a tippping point.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

9:00am EST: ES Future have traded down to 1069 (1072 cash). This is near the lower end of my channel line and lower target of 1069 (62%) for the wave (2) of the primary count. The 2nd alternate count (in red) has to be taken seriously if the SP-500 breaches the 1068 to 1074 gap area.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:26am):

May 29th, 2010: Projection To End of 2012

12:40pm EST:   This was posted during the week embedded with the daily updates, but I wanted to give it a proper independent blog entry.

See the attached weekly chart for my primary count forecast through 2012. I believe we are forming a 2nd powerful inverse head and shoulders with a neckline between 1200 and 1100. Once P2 completes either now or in the fall, then P3 will break this neckline which will propel the markets past the Oct 2007 high of 1575. You can clearly see this same inverse head and shoulders pattern on all major US Indices (i.e. DOW-30, Nasdaq, and Russel-2000). The 1st powerful inverse head and shoulders break-out occured in July 2009 when the SP-500 broke above the 950 neckline and propelled it to the 1220 by Apil 2010.

This is my technical view of the SP-500. However, I'm flexible and will adust my counts and views accordingly as the waves develop over minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. I showed a couple alternate views on the future over the weekend one being the expanding triangle playing out over the next decade and the other being a falling wedge droping down to about 400 by 2012. We are certainly at a critical junction for my primary count as shown. As we move through the balance of 2010, it should become more clear which view is correct.

SP-500 Week Chart Projection To 2012 (5-26-10):
 

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May 28th, 2010:

5:20pm EST:  Well we got the down leg to 1090 and a little extra (1085) that I was expecting. I believe this was the wave (2) of a runnning flat off the wave (1) high of 1090. However, I'm willing to entertain some more downward price movement in wave (2). In which case wave (1) ended yesterday at 1103 and today's drop from 1103 to 1085 was the a-leg of a 5-3-5, a-b-c, Zig-Zag. The ramp back up to 1100 this afternoon was the b-leg and we began the c-leg down at the close. For this variant of wave (2), the targets for the completion are from 1065 (62%) to 1079 (38%). A drop to 1065 would close the 1068 to 1074 gap left open by Thursday agressive push higher. The target for wave (3) of this count is the 1120 to 1130 area mid to late next week. And ultimately wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 has a target of 1140 to 1150.

The first altenate count is in sync with the primary count in that we are in wave (2)-A-[B]-P2 with a target for (5)-A-[B]-P2 at 1140 to 1150. And the second alternate count is that we are in wave iii-(5)-[C]-P2 down towards 1041.

Have a great Memorial 3-Day Weekend!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

2:50pm EST:  Shake, shake, shake..."They" are trying to make the nervous longs think, "oh no, it is a failed inverse head and shoulders, get me out before the holiday".

With the last drop to 1085, there are 5 waves down off the 1103 high. So, I'm forced to alter make primary count. I'm going to go with something I don't use very often, and that is a 3-3-5 running flat for wave (2). A running flat ends up almost where it began so basically, so wave (2) ends were wave (1) ended or a little below it. And in between there is a big dip and big rise. Just what transpired after the wave (1) rise to 1090, then the fall to 1068, rise to 1103 and fall 1085.

So, my thinking is still the same in that wave (3) will be the wave that carries the SP-500 back above 1115 towards 1130 to 1140 by late next week.

Of the course the 2nd alternate (in red) is that we just had a waves i and ii of (5) off the 1103 peak and early next week will be a nasty iii-(5) drop to new lows below 1041. That is the count all the perma-bear E-wave blogs will be discussing this weekend, except they are going to call it a wave i and ii of the begining of the first big wave 3 of P3 down with targets towards 920. Next week will be a continuation of the test of who has the primary count correct. :-)

SP-500 15-min Chart (2:40pm):

1:00pm EST:  There was your retest of the 1090 neckline and potential "fake-out" below it to 1087, as I indicated below in my 10:45am update.  Also take a look at the SP-500 Daily Candle Chart showing the similarities of the Feb 5th and May 25th lows.  Today's was supposed to be red bar down after the test of the 13-day EMA yesterday.  Tuesday should be an up day and by the end of next week the SP-500 should be above the key 1115 level if history is repeating.

SP-500 Daily Chandle Chart (12:31pm):

10:45am EST:  We have had the first successful back-test of the IHS neckline this morning at 1091.81.   I predicted a drop to 1090 in the primary count.  I'm looking for possible 2nd attempt to break this neckline and maybe even a head fake a few points below it to complete wave ii-(3) before wave iii-(3) gets underway.  But it's also possible iii-(3) is getting underway already.  A close above the 1090 neckline keeps me bullish for early next week.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:40am):

8:10am EST:  Overnight ES Futures were in tight range between 1097 (1100 cash) and 1105 (1108 cash). I'm still looking for this wave i-(3) to end here in the 1103 to 1108 area and a wave ii-(3) drop down to test the 1090 neckline before iii-(3) gets underway which should target the 1120 to 1130 area next week.  We need to get above 1115 in the cash market  over the next few trading days in order to confirm an intermediate term trend change.  The inverse head and shoulders target of 1140 is the final for the end of wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 or wave a-[B]-P2 of the 1st alternate count.  The 2nd alternate count has wave (4)-[C]-P2 ending here in the 1103 to 1108 area and a big drop down to end wave (5)-[C]-P2 below 1041.


SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:24am):