PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

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2010-11-20T09:29:00.014-06:00

Nov 20th, 2010 (revised Dec 5th, 2011):

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June 4th, 2010: Moving to a New Home

2010-06-04T05:56:00.004-05:00

6:42am EST: I have posted my pre-market update on the new PUG Premium Blog. Going forward there will be a free blog post on the Premium Blog in the pre-market most mornings and a free post at the end of the day to wrap things up. There is a comments section under each post for discussion. During the trading day, I will post password protected content for the paid premium subscribers. To get accesss to the premium service, including intra-day commentary, chart updates and a link to my real-time chart feed the fee is very reasonable $75 per quarter (i.e $25 monthly rate). For both the free and premium content, you can register to receive e-mail alerts from the blog as soon as I post an update. This is a very helpful new feature that keeps the blog followers informed immediately of a new posting.

For now this old blog will be closed. It's much easier for me to maintain the single new Premium Blog for both free and premium content. I would like thank everyone who has visited and contributed here over the past year. Please join us at the new blog to continue to build an informative and friendly trading community.

For anyone that is a blog operator, I would appreciate it if you would change the old link to this blog to the new blog link of: pugsma.wordpress.com. Thanks.

June 3rd, 2010:

2010-06-03T09:34:00.001-05:00

5:07pm EST: The SP-500 closed above the 13-day EMA of 1100 for the first time since early May. And the high of the day tested the 200-day SMA at 1106. There was also a bull cross on the MACD today (see the daily candle chart). The bias is upwards. The SP-500 is poised for a “gap and go” above the 1105 to 1115 resitance band and blow-out May jobs number may do the trick. I have the primary count as wave iii-(3)-1-[1]-P3. Wave (3) target is 1130 and a final target for this wave 1-[1]-P3 at 1150. The 1st alternate count is wave iii-(3)-A-[B]-P2. This A-[B]-P2 wave has the same 1150 target. Rallying above 1115 is the key for a intermediate term bullish bias, just as it was during the Feb 5th rally. With the failure of the triangle, I have removed the 2nd alternate count. On any down-side action tomorrow the key level to watch is 1088.

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SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

10:30am EST: ES Futures were in a very tight range overnight. For the primary count, wave iii-(3), I'm watching the resistance in the 1105 to 1115 band on the upside and the wave i-(3) high of 1088 on the down side. A cross under 1088 would be a wave iv into wave i over-lap. The SP-500 and touched the 1105 resistance and since backed off to 1099.

June 2nd, 2010:

2010-06-02T07:49:00.005-05:00

5:05pm EST: Come take a look at the PUG Premium Blog. I'm including the free public posts along with the subscriber based premium posts (password protected content) on this new blog site. In the future I will likely migrate 100% to this new blog, as you can follow along there if your a free reader or a paid subsciber. You can also sign-up for a free Word Press Account and join in the comments at this new blog site. Also, consider becoming a Premium Subcriber so that you have access to all of the intra-day updates and real-time chart links. It's only $75 per quarter ($25 per month).

5:03pm EST: With the late day run to 1099 , it looks like we are in wave iii-(3)-1-[1]-P3 of the primary count or wave iii-(3)-A-[B]-P2 or the 1st alternate count (purple). Both counts are targeting the 1120/1130 area for wave (3) completion and the 1140 to 1150 area for wave (5) completion. There is some heavy resistance in the 1105 to 1115 band, so this wave iii-(3) is going to need some legs over the next 2 to 3 days to get through that area. The 2nd alternate count has been revised to a wave (4)-[A]-P2 triangle with a wave (5)-[A]-P2 targeting levels under 1040 once the triangle completes over the next 2 days. As always, my primary count is the most favored in terms of probability, followed by the 1st alternate and finally the 2nd alternate. Both the primary and 1st alternate are pointing to more upward price action over then near and intermediate term. And the 2nd alternate is point to more downward movement over the near term, but upward movement in the intermediate term. So the intermediate term trend is up by all three of my counts.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

8:47am EST: ES Futures traded in a tight range 1067 to 1078 (1070 to 1081) overnight. The key levels to watch are 1065 and 1090 in the cash markets. A break below the 1065 gap and a fresh low below 1041 is very likely by the end of this week. Conversely, if 1090 can taken and held, then the next target is 1115/20.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:18am):

June 1st, 2010:

2010-06-01T08:02:00.002-05:00

4:25pm EST: Surprising weakness into the close with a fall to 1070. This could still be part of the c-leg wave (2), which has a 62% retrace target of 1065. A level of 1065 would close the 1065 to 1074 gap left open by the Thurs May 27th run from 1065 to 1103. Below 1065, I would tend to lean towards a new low below 1041 being set in the near term, which would mean that the 2nd alternate count (in red) is playing out. On the 60-min chart, you can see that the 1070 close today parked right on the Oct 2009 to May 2010 support line (in yellow). So once the again the SP-500 is back at a tippping point.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

9:00am EST: ES Future have traded down to 1069 (1072 cash). This is near the lower end of my channel line and lower target of 1069 (62%) for the wave (2) of the primary count. The 2nd alternate count (in red) has to be taken seriously if the SP-500 breaches the 1068 to 1074 gap area.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:26am):

May 29th, 2010: Projection To End of 2012

2010-05-29T11:46:00.002-05:00

12:40pm EST: This was posted during the week embedded with the daily updates, but I wanted to give it a proper independent blog entry.

See the attached weekly chart for my primary count forecast through 2012. I believe we are forming a 2nd powerful inverse head and shoulders with a neckline between 1200 and 1100. Once P2 completes either now or in the fall, then P3 will break this neckline which will propel the markets past the Oct 2007 high of 1575. You can clearly see this same inverse head and shoulders pattern on all major US Indices (i.e. DOW-30, Nasdaq, and Russel-2000). The 1st powerful inverse head and shoulders break-out occured in July 2009 when the SP-500 broke above the 950 neckline and propelled it to the 1220 by Apil 2010.

This is my technical view of the SP-500. However, I'm flexible and will adust my counts and views accordingly as the waves develop over minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. I showed a couple alternate views on the future over the weekend one being the expanding triangle playing out over the next decade and the other being a falling wedge droping down to about 400 by 2012. We are certainly at a critical junction for my primary count as shown. As we move through the balance of 2010, it should become more clear which view is correct.

SP-500 Week Chart Projection To 2012 (5-26-10):

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May 28th, 2010:

2010-05-28T08:15:00.006-05:00

5:20pm EST: Well we got the down leg to 1090 and a little extra (1085) that I was expecting. I believe this was the wave (2) of a runnning flat off the wave (1) high of 1090. However, I'm willing to entertain some more downward price movement in wave (2). In which case wave (1) ended yesterday at 1103 and today's drop from 1103 to 1085 was the a-leg of a 5-3-5, a-b-c, Zig-Zag. The ramp back up to 1100 this afternoon was the b-leg and we began the c-leg down at the close. For this variant of wave (2), the targets for the completion are from 1065 (62%) to 1079 (38%). A drop to 1065 would close the 1068 to 1074 gap left open by Thursday agressive push higher. The target for wave (3) of this count is the 1120 to 1130 area mid to late next week. And ultimately wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 has a target of 1140 to 1150.

The first altenate count is in sync with the primary count in that we are in wave (2)-A-[B]-P2 with a target for (5)-A-[B]-P2 at 1140 to 1150. And the second alternate count is that we are in wave iii-(5)-[C]-P2 down towards 1041.

Have a great Memorial 3-Day Weekend!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

2:50pm EST: Shake, shake, shake..."They" are trying to make the nervous longs think, "oh no, it is a failed inverse head and shoulders, get me out before the holiday".

With the last drop to 1085, there are 5 waves down off the 1103 high. So, I'm forced to alter make primary count. I'm going to go with something I don't use very often, and that is a 3-3-5 running flat for wave (2). A running flat ends up almost where it began so basically, so wave (2) ends were wave (1) ended or a little below it. And in between there is a big dip and big rise. Just what transpired after the wave (1) rise to 1090, then the fall to 1068, rise to 1103 and fall 1085.

So, my thinking is still the same in that wave (3) will be the wave that carries the SP-500 back above 1115 towards 1130 to 1140 by late next week.

Of the course the 2nd alternate (in red) is that we just had a waves i and ii of (5) off the 1103 peak and early next week will be a nasty iii-(5) drop to new lows below 1041. That is the count all the perma-bear E-wave blogs will be discussing this weekend, except they are going to call it a wave i and ii of the begining of the first big wave 3 of P3 down with targets towards 920. Next week will be a continuation of the test of who has the primary count correct. :-)

SP-500 15-min Chart (2:40pm):

1:00pm EST: There was your retest of the 1090 neckline and potential "fake-out" below it to 1087, as I indicated below in my 10:45am update. Also take a look at the SP-500 Daily Candle Chart showing the similarities of the Feb 5th and May 25th lows. Today's was supposed to be red bar down after the test of the 13-day EMA yesterday. Tuesday should be an up day and by the end of next week the SP-500 should be above the key 1115 level if history is repeating.

SP-500 Daily Chandle Chart (12:31pm):

10:45am EST: We have had the first successful back-test of the IHS neckline this morning at 1091.81. I predicted a drop to 1090 in the primary count. I'm looking for possible 2nd attempt to break this neckline and maybe even a head fake a few points below it to complete wave ii-(3) before wave iii-(3) gets underway. But it's also possible iii-(3) is getting underway already. A close above the 1090 neckline keeps me bullish for early next week.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:40am):

8:10am EST: Overnight ES Futures were in tight range between 1097 (1100 cash) and 1105 (1108 cash). I'm still looking for this wave i-(3) to end here in the 1103 to 1108 area and a wave ii-(3) drop down to test the 1090 neckline before iii-(3) gets underway which should target the 1120 to 1130 area next week. We need to get above 1115 in the cash market over the next few trading days in order to confirm an intermediate term trend change. The inverse head and shoulders target of 1140 is the final for the end of wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 or wave a-[B]-P2 of the 1st alternate count. The 2nd alternate count has wave (4)-[C]-P2 ending here in the 1103 to 1108 area and a big drop down to end wave (5)-[C]-P2 below 1041.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:24am):

May 27th, 2010: The Futures and THE FUTURE

2010-05-26T23:20:00.006-05:00

7:30pm EST: Nothing has changed with my counts since my earlier day updates. Primary count is looking very strong. I still think we in wave i-(3)-1-[1]-P3 of the primary count. I think this wave i-(3) has ended here EOD right at the 200-day SMA of 1104. The is also gap resistance between 1105 and 1119. I'm looking for wave ii-(3) pull-back to at least the broken neckline at 1090 (38% retrace) tomorrow. I think we will start wave iii-(3) before the holiday weekend and that this iii-(3) wave should get us through the heavy 1105 to 1119 resistance next week. The 1st alternate count (purple) is that this is wave i-a-[B]-P2 up, which aligns with the primary count until we reach the 1150 to 1220 level, then it breaks back down in the [C]-P2 leg. And the red 2nd alternate count (red) that this is a wave (4)-[C]-P2 is hanging by a tread, as 1108 is the 62% retrace. There will not be near term new lows below 1041, if the 1115 level is breached.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

10:20am: The SP-500 went up and touched the 1090 neckline near the open and has since backed off. For the primary count we are likely in a wave i-(3)-1-[1]-P3. The first alternate (purple) is wave i-a-[B]-P3. It should be noted the 1st altnerate count is headed in the same general direction as the primary, except when it reaches the 1150 to 1220 area, it will head back down in wave [C]-P2. I have not removed the red alternate count that this is still part of wave c-(4)-[C]-P2 and will get a wave (5)-[C]-P2 to new lows under 1040. This wave (4) could climb to 1095, 50% retrace of wave (4), and fake-out the bulls with a neckline break before crashing back down. As always the counts are listed in my order of highest probability first, and the primary and 1st alernate counts are both bullish for the intermediate term. The 2nd alternate is near term bearish still, but will turn intermediate term bullish after one last drop.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:10am):

8:45am: Futures peaked at 1092 (1095 cash), so they did break the 1087(1090) neckline of the inverse head and shoulders. Let's see if there is follow-through and confirmation in the cash market above 1090. Target for (3) is 1140. An close above 1074 today is confirmation of the hammer candle from Tuesday.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:26am):

12:30am: See the attached weekly chart for my primary count forecast through 2012. I believe we are forming a 2nd powerful inverse head and shoulders with a neckline between 1200 and 1100. Once P2 completes either now or in the fall, then P3 will break this neckline which will propel the markets past the Oct 2007 high of 1575. You can clearly see this same inverse head and shoulders pattern on all major US Indices (i.e. DOW-30, Nasdaq, and Russel-2000). The 1st power inverse head and shoulders break-out occured in July 2009 when the SP-500 broke above the 950 neckline and propelled it to the 1220 by Apil 2010.

This is my technical view of the SP-500. However, I'm flexible and will adust my counts and views accordingly as the waves develop over minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years. I showed a couple alternate views on the future over the weekend one being the expanding triangle playing out over the next decade and the other being a falling wedge droping down to about 400 by 2012. We are certainly at a critical junction for my primary count. As we move through the balance of 2010, it should become more clear which view is correct.

SP-500 Weekly Chart Projection Thruough 2012:

12:17am: ES Futures dropped to 1056 (1059 cash) and have since rebouned to 1068 (1071). This 1059 cash market level is the 62% retrace and is a down channel back-test on the futures chart. The primary count is looking pretty good as long as the overnight Futures hold above 1056. And the ultimate key to this primary count is a break-out above the 1090 neckline.

SP-500 ES Future 60-min Chart (12:00am):

May 26th, 2010: Watching for Follow-Through

2010-05-25T22:38:00.008-05:00

5:30pm EST: Well today my 1090 target for wave (1)-1-[1]-P3 was hit just about on the button. The primary count is that we are tracing out a wave (2)-1-[1]-P1 with a target of 1065 (50%) to 1059 (62%). The close was at 1068 and ES Futures are already down 5 points to 1060 (1063 cash). So there is not much room to fall overnight if this count is going to hold up. This primary count sports an inverse head and shoulders with a target to 1140, after the right should completes at the 1060 area. This count needs a breakout over the 1090 neckline to confirm.

The alternate count (shown in red) is that the retrace to 1090 was wave (4)-[C]-P2 and wave (5)-[C]-P2 is just getting underway at the end of day. The count would be wave iii-(5)-[C]-P2. This count has a target of 1032 for wave (5)=(1), target of 1021 for [C]=[A] or target of 1010 for 38% retrace of P1.

Obviously, what happens overnight in Asia and Europe is going to hold the key. If things go bad overseas, we could wake-up to a fresh new low tomorrow. It's an important next couple of days as the bulls and bear battle to control the area near 1050.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:05am EST: I think wave (1) maybe over just above my 1090 target, as we hit 1090.75. Now the primary count has a wave (2) retrace target between 1059 (62%) and 1071 (38%). This count has the inverse head and shoulders formation going for it and the fact that the down channel trendline was broken.

Also, I left the alternate count in red on the chart. I found a way for this current wave to continue below 1041, assuming yesterday was only the completion of wave (3)-[C]-P2 and today's run to 1091 was wave (4)-[C]-P2. We would then get a big drop down going into the end of this week for wave (5)-[C]-P2 towards the 1032 target for wave (5)=(1). One thing that this count has going in its favor is that the wave (4) would have retraced back to previous wave-iv of (3) 1090 level. This very typical for a wave 4 of a larger degree. Wave (4) retrace tagerts are 1082 (38%), 1095 (50%) and 1108 (62%). We have already crossed the 38% retrace.

Both counts point down in the near term, it's just a matter of whether or not the 1060 area will hold support and therefore the primary count will be proven correct which leads us to higher levels in the intermediate term. A break down below 1060 and the red altrenate count points to new lows below 1041 and the trend remains down for a while longer.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:00am):

8:52am EST: ES Futures are trading up to 1085 (1088) this moring. There was a sucessful back-lest of the down trendline overnight. My target for wave (1) up was 1090, which is the the inverse head and shoulders neckline. If this 1090 area holds as resistance, we could see a 50/62% retrace to the 1060 to 1065 area to form the right shoulder for wave (2) down. If we push through the 1090 neckline with the retrace, then the next target area is 1100/05 and then 1115.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:27am):

11:35pm EST (5-25-10): Looking for follow-through and/or consolidation of todays reversal. ES Futures traded up to 1083 (1086 cash equiv) and have since pulled back to 1072 (1075 cash). This looks like a back-test of the down trend channel line that was gapped up and over during the after-hours trading today. The key levels to watch in early morning cash market trading are 1078 and 1090 to the upside and 1060 to the downside.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (10:53pm):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

May 25th, 2010: Wave (5)

2010-05-25T04:54:00.010-05:00

5:40pm EST: I only count 3 waves down out of the wave (4) triangle. Yet SPX bounced hard and closed green at 1074. Now in after-hours it's trading up another 10 points or 1084 equivalent and it looks like the we are breaking out of the down channel from 1174 to 1040. Plus with the VIX chart and SPX hammer candle chart I presented today, it sure smells like a near-term and maybe intermediate bottom was put into today. I'm going to move the wave (5)-[C]-P2 low to today's low of 1040.78. I will leave the possible count of a wave-v-(5) lower, low in red on the chart, but as soon as 1078 is breached in the cash market tomorrow that count will be invalid. My primary count is that we are beginning wave (1)-1-[1]-P3 today. Specifically that we have put in waves i and ii and are in wave iii with a target near 1090 for the end of wave (1) tomororw. Then I think we'll retrace 62% to about 1060 for wave (2) later this week, before jumping much higher next week in wave (3). 1090 is going going to be the neckline of a large Inverse Head and Shoulders that projects to about 1140 for the end of wave 1-[1]-P3. The alternate count is that wave is the [B] wave a A-B-C, 3-3-5 flat. We'll need a more time and price action to distingish between these two counts. The main thing right now is both counts point higher and we need to the confirm the near-term and then intermediate trend change. Breaking above 1078 confirms the near term trend change and above 1115 confirms the intermediate term change.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

4:15pm EST: Hammer time again at 1040? Today's price action resembles the Feb 5th low at 1045. Bulls need follow-through and/or consolidation above 1040 the next several days to confirm the near term and possibily interemdiate term trend change from down to up. Lots of bullish signs on the daily candle chart below with MACD histogram turning positive and a bullish cross on the Full-STO.

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

3:05pm EST: Looking closer at the VIX (Volatility Index), we can observe some serious negative divergence between price and all three key technical indicators (RSI, MACD, and Full Sto). This is indicating a potential strong trend change with the VIX falling and in tern the SPX rising. However in the bears favor, look how close the VIX is to getting the Golden Cross (50-day above 200-day). The last time Golden Cross this happened on the VIX in the Sept 2008 we had 6 months of selling pressure on the SPX to drive it down to 666. It's just another reason the bulls must defend this 1050 area and keep the VIX headed lower.

VIX Daily Candles (2:05pm):

12:10pm EST: Assuming we are nearing a tradeable bottom here in the 1010 to 1040 area, I can add my intermediate alternate count to the mix if primary wave 2 (P2) needs more time (i.e not necessarily price) to play out. So far we clearly have 3-waves down off the 1220 April 2010 P1 top. This could be a simple 5-3-5 Zig-Zag for P2, as I have it labed for my primary count. However, the end of this current move lower could be the [A] leg of a 3-3-5 flat. In which case we would expect 3-wave [B] leg move higher ending near the 1220 area by late July or early August. This would be back-test of the broken P1 channel line shown on my 60-min chart. Finally, there would be another violant 5-wave [C] leg down to this same area 1010 to 1040 area in the early fall. If the [B] leg of this flat were to exceed the 1220 P1 top, then we'd have an expanded flat and the [C] leg down in the fall would be considerably deeper than where we are now. For an expanded flat [B]=1.2[A] => 1256 and the [C]=1.62[A] => 964. The 956 area is the 50% retracement of P1 and would make a nice P2 target for both price and time. There is also strong support in this 956 area on the weekly and monthly charts as discussed over the past weekend. I like this flat or expanded flat idea for P2. So we'll just have to watch the wave structure for any rebound from this 1040 area. If it takes the form of a 5-wave impulse up then it would be the beginning of the P3 wave which will last for serveral years. If it's more of a 3-wave move then the flat or expanded flat for P2 could be playing out.

SP-500 60-min Chart (11:30am):

12:00pm EST: It's difficult to say if this is just the wave-iv bounce of (5)-[C]-P2 or if wave-v-(5)-[C]-P2 has ended. Thus far the bounce is looking quite strong and has the potential to be a key reversal day if it continues. There is a gap to fill between 1068 and 1073 so that could be the target if this is wave-iv-(5). If the SP-500 price moves above the wave-i-(5) level of 1078, then move lower has ended. Here is the updated 15-min chart.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am EST):

8:45am EST: ES Futures hit a low of 1037 (1040 cash equiv). There has been a bit of bounce up to 1047 (1050 cash equiv). The 1045 level in the cash market will be a key level to watch. A close above 1045 is important if this is going to be tradeable near term bottom.

ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:26am):

5:52am EST: I said in the EOD update yesterday we should watch for clues in the ES Futures to futher confirm the primary count of iii-(5)-[C]-P2. Well, the ES Futures have left no doubt. ES Futures have traded down to 1041 (1044 cash equiv), On the ES Futures 60-min chart the channel indicates ES could drop down to about 1020 over the course of today. On my cash market 15-min chart the channel supports a drop to about 1040 at the open and drop to 1032 by EOD. I have targets for this wave (5) ranging from 1053 { (5)=0.62(1) }, 1032 { (5)=(1) }, 1021 { [C]=[A] } to 1010 { 38% of P1 }. Based on the ES Futures the 1032 and 1021 targets look the most likely. However, the 1045 area is very important as it's the Feb 5th, 2010 low and the 50-month SMA.

ES Futures 60-min Chart (5:19am):

May 24th, 2010:

2010-05-24T07:29:00.006-05:00

5:40pm EST: I'm watching the daily candles for a tradable bottom. Interesting similarity to the Feb 5th, 2010 lows. The selling volume decreased today on the red price candle, after the black price reversal candle on Friday. Very similar to the Feb 5th low. This daily candle chart plus the VIX closing red and Dr Copper signaling a bottom or turn is near is very interesting. The SPY after hour price is down about 6 SPX points from the close. So SPX is trading down around 1067 right now, as some after market traders are expecting a big drop tomorrow. Will they be right?

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

5:20pm EST: Just noticed when updating the 60-min chart that 1073 closed right on the Oct 09 to May 10 trendline.

5:10pm EST: It would apprear from the price action going into the close today, that the correct count is the primary count with wave (5) down underway. More specificially, it looks like wave iii-(5)-[C]-P2 has begun. One thing that bothers me about this count, is that the VIX stayed in the red all day and closed down -1.78 (-4.4%). Typically, when price and VIX both close red, it signals a turn-around in price is coming soon. So we'll have to watch for clues in the ES Futures and near the open tomorrow. Targets for this wave (5) range from 1053 { (5)=0.62(1) }, 1032 { (5)=(1) }, 1021 { [C]=[A] } to 1010 { 38% of P1 }. The 1053 target is probably the most interesting, as it would set a slightly lower low below 1056 and likely set-up some positive divergence on the daily oscillators.

The alternate count is still valid as long as 1056 holds as the low. I have the alternate count as wave ii-(1)-1-[1]-P3 with a 62% retrace of wave i-(1) at 1069. This alternate count still sports the inverse head and shoulders (double left and right shoulders) with a neckline at 1090 and a target of 1124.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:05pm EST: Is Dr Copper forecasting a trend change for the larger markets? Over the past two days, Dr Copper has broken out of it's recent consolidation lower range. Copper needs to continue to hold above $3.05 to maintain bullish momentum.

Copper 60-min Chart (12:55pm):

12:10am EST: Very intersting area here around the 1090 inverse head and shoulders neckline. If the SP-500 is going to set a new low under 1056, it needs to get busy. Otherwise above 1090 things start to get more bullish near term with a potential target near 1124. The VIX has been down 6 to 8% all morning with the SP-500 in the red., which is a bullish indicator. The 50-week SMA support at 1072 mentioned over the weekend looks to be holding up as support thus far.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:45am):

8:30am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1170 (1173 cash) this morning. Still well above the Friday AM low of 1153 (1156 cash). The primary count is that the SP-500 is in wave (4)-[C]-P2, possibily a triangle. Targets for (5)-[C]-P2 are down in the 1032 to 1010 area, but any new low below 1056 is a valid wave (5) completion. The alternate count is wave ii-(1)-1-[1]-P3, which needs to maintain above the 1056 Friday AM low. A move above 1115 in the cash market is the key to declaring the current wave down over.

SP-500 ES Futures (7:56am):

May 22nd, 2010: The Big Picture

2010-05-22T11:15:00.009-05:00

9:17am EST (May 23rd): I've added my alterantate version (in red) of the bear P3 count where the SP-500 would make a new low under 666, to about 500 then bounce to about 900 in P4 and finally complete P5 at about 400. This would end cycle wave {C} of super cycle IV and a new secular bull market would begin. This a falling wedge pattern for {C} and would limit the depth of the overall drop. In no way do I believe prices will reach the SP-500 sub-50 target and DOW-30 sub-400 target that EWI and Prechter theorize is coming. My primary count is the new secular bull shown in green, but the large triangle (purple) and falling wedge (red) alternate counts are possible outcomes.

SP-500 Monthy Chart (Updated 5-23-10):

12:10am EST: Here are two big picture charts on the SP-500; first the weekly and then monthly. If we look at the weekly SP-500 chart we can see how important this 1050 to 1080 area is for maintaining the bullish momentum. There is long term support in this band going all the way back into 2001 and 2002. And in the summer or 2004 the 1061 level contained the first significant pull-back during the 2002 to 2007 cyclical bull run. The 50-week SMA sits at 1072 and it another important level for maintaining the bull rally. So if the bulls can hold the 1050 level over the next few weeks, it could set-up the next run higher. Failure hold the 1050 support, will lead to a fall to the 1000 to 1020 area and quite possibily the 950 area.

On the monthly chart, you can see that the 50-month SMA sits at 1045. Again another indicator of how key the 1045 area of support is to maintain the bull rally. Another interesting item on the monthly chart is that the 200-month SMA capped the current P1 rally at 1220. Notice how in the spring of 2004, the same 200-month SMA capped the first leg up of the 2002 to 2007 cylical bull rally. But it produced only a shallow retrace and the next more powerful leg of the bull rally began in the summer of 2004 that carry prices to new highs in Oct 2007. I think history is about to repeat in this regard; in that P2 will find support in this 1050 to 950 band and set the stage for a even more explosive bull rally. On this monthly chart you can see my longer term view on where the SP-500 prices may be headed for 2012 and beyond.

One last comment, notice what followed the Oct 1987 (36%) and July 1998 (22%) very rapid (1 to 2 month) corrections during the last secular bull market. The current correction is at 13.4% (1220 to 1056). And even if the1050 area support is broken and the SP-500 falls to 1010 (38% retrace), 943 (50% retrace) or 867 (62% retrace) then the corrections would be 17.2%, 22.7%, 28.2% and respectively. So all of those retrace targets and rapid corrections can be within the context of a secular bull market.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD 5-21-10):

SP-500 Monthly Chart (EOD, 5-12-10):

May 21st, 2010:

2010-05-21T07:44:00.010-05:00

5:05pm EST: Strong looking reversal day from the 1056 low to the 1090 high and a positive 16 point close at 1087. I have the primary count as wave c-(4)-[C]-P2 with targets at 1091 (38%) to 1102 (50%). Following wave (4), I have a final wave (5)-[C]-P2 headed down towards targets between 1032 {wave(5)=(1)}, 1021 (C=A) and 1010 (38% P1 retrace).

However, with the strong reversal today the alternate count gained some momentum. And holding above the Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045 is bullish. The alternate count has wave (5)-[C]-P2 finished at 1056 today and SP-500 have begun the next bull leg higher. Key resistance levels to cross are 1095, 1105 and finally 1115. I have the alternate count at the end of the day as wave iii-(1)-1-[1]-P3. So the SP-500 is positioned for a large gap higher on Monday to clear resistance.

Have a great weekend.

SP-500 5-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

1:40pm EST: I have this bounce up this morning as wave (4)-[C]-P2 of the primary count. Targets for wave (4) are 1091 (38%) and 1102 (50%). The wave (1) low was 1115, so any move above 1115 confirms that this [C]-P2 wave down is over. A possible wave (5)-[C]-P2 target is 1032 {for wave (5)=(1)}. There is also the C=A target of 1021 and the 38% P1 retrace target of 1010.

For the alternate count, I have 1056 as the end of wave (5)-[C]-P2 and the P2 correction is over. The SP-500 would be starting wave (1)-1-[1]-P3 up. For this count to be correct 1056 should not be breached again. The price has broken up and out of the bullish falling wedge and a move above resistance in the 1095 to 1105 area would be further confirmation. Final confirmation would be a move above 1115. Another key feature of this P2 has ended alternate count is that the the Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045 was not breached. Higher lows is a key feature of bullish market behavior. The Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045 was above the Nov 5th, 2009 low of 1029. So the market would be in a position of continuing to make higher lows during the corrections.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:20pm):

8:42am EST: ES Futures have fallen to 1059 (1061 cash). For the primary, I have the count as wave-v-(3)-[C]-P2. Targets for wave-v-(3) are 1065 (v=0.62i) and 1047 (v=i). 1047 looks more likely if the market opens at or near the low of the ES Futures. The alternate count has this as wave (5)-[C]-P2 and the 1047/1050 will be the end of this down wave.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:12am):

May 20th, 2010:

2010-05-20T07:22:00.007-05:00

5:30pm EST: For the primary, I have the count as wave-v-(3)-[C]-P2. Targets for wave-v-(3) are 1065 (v=0.62i) and 1047 (v=i). Next I expect a wave (4) bounce to about 1085 (38% retrace from 1065) or 1074 (38% retrace from 1047). Finally, there should be wave (5) down to about 1026 (wave(5)=(1)). Other levels of interest are 1010 (38% retreace of P1) and 1021 (where C=A). I think P2 will complete late next week or in early June. As the alternate (purple), I have the count as wave (5)-[C]-P2 under way late today and the target is the 1047 to 1065 area for completion of P2 (may as early as tomorrow).

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

2:15pm EST: If the Oct-09 to May-10 support line holds and the 1067 flash crash low is not taken out, then one alternate that is on the table is that P2 traced out a 3-3-5, A-B-C flat. The flash crash drop from 1220 to 1067 can be counted as a 3-wave, the bounce up to 1174 can be counted as a 3-wave, and the drop from 1174 to 1073 can be counted as 5-wave. This would mean some more consolidation here above 1067 and then the next bull run higher. We'll have to watch 1115 on any upside move.

1:30pm EST: SP-500 bounced off the support line (yellow) going back to early Oct 2009. This support line held the Nov-09 drop, the Feb-10 drop and thus far the May-10 drop.

SP-500 60-min Chart (1:20pm):

SP-500 Daily Chart (1:20pm):

10:35am EST: SP-500 has traded down to 1078. I've gone back to my original labels for the wave (1)-[C]-P2 ending at 1115, then (2)-[C]-P2 at 1150 and now we are in (3)-[C]-P2. There are a couple ways to count (3)-[C] off of 1150. We could be either in iii-(3) or v-(3). The large gap down would argue for iii-(3). If we are in iii-(3), then there is lower prices yet to come. Since wave i-(3) was 1150 to 1100 (50 points), wave iii-(3) would be 1.62*i = 81 points for a target of 1119-81=1038. If we are in wave v-(3), then it should end aournd wave v=i or 1069. Any bounce for wave (4)-[C] should stay below 1115 to keep the down wave headed lower.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:30am):

8:20am EST: ES Futures have traded all the way down to 1089 (1091) in the cash market which is a new low since the May 6th flash crash to 1067. Obviously, this is a very bearish overnight outcome. The fallening wedge is still valid to about 1190 in the cash market and it looks like the futures bounced up from this area.

We must remember that the primary count is that we are in wave [C]-P2 with an ultimate target down to 1010 to 1020. I have been trying to determine if we are still in (1)-[C] or (3)-[C]. The futures action (if it holds up in the cash market today) may have made that decision for us. If closes under 1100 today, then the alternate bullish near count will be eliminated.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:54am):

May 19th, 2010:

2010-05-19T07:52:00.005-05:00

4:20pm EST: OK, I have made couple decisions this afternoon. First the 1100 area (200-day SMA) is going to be my line in the sand for abandoning the bullish near term alternate count. If the SP-500 closes under this area, I don't think it's reasonable to maintain the bullish near term count. Second, this drop from 1174 to 1100 looks like a bullish falling wedge. So I'm going to label this entire move down as (1)-[C]-P2. A bullish falling wedge should retrace roughly back up to where it started or about 1149. Targets for (2)-[C]-P2 are 1127 (38%), 1135 (50%) and 1145 (62%). So the 62% retrace fits wtih the falling wedge. I don't think (3)-[C]-P2 down can get going until the over-sold near-term indicators can rebound higher. So we need a good bounce higher from here going into OPEX Friday and early next week.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

12:20pm EST: The SP-500 traded down to 1100.66. The 200-day SMA sits at 1102, which is why it has found some support. The 200-day SMA has held as support on a closing basis since the golden cross (200-day above 50-day SMA) in mid-June 2009. A close above 1102 today is key for the bull case (alternate count). We are at another critical juncture, with intermediate term to even longer term implications.

SP-500 Daily Candles Chart (11:42am):

11:00am EST: So far so good with the primary count being right on target for the end of wave i-(3)-[C]-P2 at 1105. Looking for a bounce to the 1127 (50% retrace) to 1133 (62% retrace) area for wave ii-(3) before iii-(3) down really gets going. The alternate count for wave 2-[1]-P3 ending at 1105 also looks attractive too because 1107 was the 62% retrace of the wave 1-[1]-P3 run from 1067 to 1174. The 1105/1107 area is key long term pivot to hold for the bullish alternate count. So as we get this next bounce up, we have to watch the for corrrective (primary count) vs impulsive (altrenate count) characteristics.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:45am):

8:50pm EST: ES Futures traded all the way down to 1105 (1107 cash), which closed the big gap up from a week ago Monday. This is the area I'm looking at for wave i-(3)-[C]-P2 of the primary count or wave 2-[1]-P3 of the alernate count to end. 1107 cash is 62% retrace of the move from the 1067 low to the 1174 high. I'm looking for a bounce up to the 1125 to 1130 area for ii-(3) of the primary count.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:30am):

May 18th, 2010: Watching 1150 Area Again

2010-05-18T07:29:00.003-05:00

4:55pm EST: We nailed the 1150 target pretty well this morning for wave (2)-[C]-P2. For the primary count I think we are working on wave i-(3)-[C]-P2 down. Might have a little more room down yet to go before the ii-(3)-[C]-P2 small bounce up. For the alternate count, even though 1115 held today, I don't think wave 2-[1]-P3 is over. I have targets from 1113 (c=0.62a) to 1091 (c=a). 1107 is the the 62% retrace area and 1091 is the 78% retrace area.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

8:25am EST: This time I'm watching the 1150 area again, this time on the way back up. ES Futures are traded up to 1144 (1146 cash), there about a 2 point difference now to the June ES contract. So we have passed the 50% retrace of 1144 for wave (2)-[C]-P2 of the primary count and next up is the 62% retrace at 1151. For the primary count we need 1151 to hold and to quickly turn down in wave (3)-[C]-P3 headed to new lows. If the SP-500 gets above 1151 and challenges the 13-day EMA at 1158, the primary count will be in jeopardy. And certainly if 1174 is breached in the cash market, then the primary count is invalid and the alternate count which calls for new highs above 1220 would take over. So we face a very critical juncture here in the next day or two.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:54am):

May 17th, 2010: Another Wave Down

2010-05-16T22:01:00.004-05:00

4:25pm EST: I called for a drop to a new low below 1126 today and it occurred as predicted. Both the primary and alternate counts were pointing to this new low below 1126. Today's bounce off the 1115 level was bullish and we had a very bullish green close. Reversal candles were printed on all major indices. Both primary and alternate counts point to a bounce towards 1150. At 1150 the two counts diverge greatly. The primary count heads to new lows below 1067 for wave (3)-[C]-P2 and the alternate heads to new highs above 1220 in wave 3-[1]-P3. So the next day or two will hold the key to the intermediate term price action. The 13-day EMA sets at 1158 and should help separate the two counts as well. Today's price action reminds me of the Feb 5th reversal that ushered in a 2.5 month bull run to a new SP-500 intermediate high.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

10:00am EST: Now that the cash markets have opened, I still believe that an additional wave down is required for both the primary and alternate counts. The late Friday and early Monday move up can be counted as was part of wave-iv-(1)-[C]-P2 for the primary count with wave-v down yet to come. And for the alternate count the move up cound be wave-b-2-[1]-P3 with wave-c down yet to come. My targets are still in the 1120 to 1107 area for both counts.

Once this wave down completes, the next move higher is going to hold the key to the intermediate term SP-500 direction. The 13-day EMA has moved all the wave down to 1158 and the 34-day EMA is at 1168. So with the primary count, I don't expect the next move up to get past this area before the next big drop down below 1067.

SP-500 15-min Chart (9:50am):

11:00pm, 5-16: The ES Futures tonight have traded down to 1122.5 (1125.5 cash), which is a new low for this current wave down. Remember what I said in my Friday EOD update: "I think there is still one more wave down, wave-v-(1), yet to come early Monday. Since we have traded down to 1126, the next two logical points for this wave (1)-[C]-P2 to end are at 50% retrace (1120) or 62% retrace (1107). The large gap up from Monday is between 1110 and 1121, so that fits here too." Whether or not this new low holds into the cash markets tomorrow will be interesting. But 1120 and then 1107 are my cash market targets.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (10:33pm EST):

May 14th, 2010: Watching the 1150 Area

2010-05-14T06:47:00.006-05:00

5:00pm EST: To me this wave down looks like an impulse, which is what you'd expect for wave (1)-[C]-P2 of the primary count. This whole [C]-P2 leg should be one big impulse where every rip is sold and dip buyers get crushed. Remember my first [C]-P2 target is 1010 (38% retrace of P1 666 to 1220), but any level under 1067 will satisfy the E-wave count. I think there is still one more wave down, wave-v-(1), yet to come early Monday. Since we have traded down to 1126, the next two logical points for this wave (1)-[C]-P2 to end are at 50% retrace (1120) or 62% retrace (1107). The large gap up from Monday is between 1110 and 1121, so that fits here too. The bounce up from this level for wave (2)-[C]-P2 should happen during the early part of OPEX week, next week. I'm looking for the bounce to the 1150 area. If it gets past 1150, then the alternate for wave 3-[1]-P3 starts to gain momentum. We'll just have to wait and see what the bounce looks like before confirming the count. Have a nice weekend.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:10am EST: Market is acting similar to the Jan-Feb correction after a re-test of the 13-day and 34-day EMA at 1173. The price has now hit the 38% fib retrace at 1133. The 62% fib at 1107 and the 200-day SMA at 1100 are the last line of defense for the bulls. If that area is breached [C]-P2 is definitely underway.

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (10:47am):

10:10am EST: The 1148 (23%) fib retrace did not hold up and the SP-500 has dropped down to 1135.18. The next fib retrace is 1133 (38%) and after that 1120 (50%). This 1120 to 1133 area is where I have had the wave (1)-[C]-P2 for the primary count or the wave 2-[1]-P3 of the alternate count postitioned since Tuesday of this week. The key now is to decifer which count is correct. The primary count means new lows below 1067 for the completion of [C]-P2 and the alternate counts means new highs above 1220 are coming as wave 3-[1]-P3 gets underway. The nature of the bounce from this 1120 to 1133 area will help us sort this out. If we start to get an impulsive move back up, the alternate count is the most likely. If the bounce looks corrective, then the primary is most likely.

SP-500 15-min (9:50am):

7:45am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1145.7 (1148.7 cash) this morning. So we have hit the 1147/1150 target and support that I spoke of in last nights EOD update. I would expect a bounce from this area. The nature of the bounce will determine if there is more upside above 1173 yet to come or there is more down-side to follow. If the 1150 area holds as support there is a new parallel channel that could take the SP-500 to new highs, as shown on the ES Futures chart. Finally, a break through the 1137 line would be very bearish.

SP-500 ES Future 60-min Chart (EOD):

May 13th, 2010: Still Wedging

2010-05-13T07:59:00.009-05:00

9:20pm EST: Here is a quick look at the Daily 13-day vs 34-day EMA chart with trendlines since the July 2009 low of 869. You can see that the SP-500 is trading in the mid-channel and needs to hold the 1150 support in order to stay there. The move higher so far has been rejected by the 34-day EMA at 1173 and the bear-cross is still in affect from May 6th. I have also attached the standard Daily Chart. You can see the lower Elliott Wave P1 channel trend line (white) comes from the March 2009 low of 666 and sits at around 1150 tomorrow. I think 1147/50 is very important to hold tomorrow for the bulls to keep control.

SP-500 Daily13-day vs 34-day EMA Cross-over Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

4:45pm EST: The bearish rising wedge broke down, as I favored from my morning reports. Also the 34-day and EMA and 50-day SMA held as resistance at the 1173 level. The minimum target for the rising wedge break down is back to the base from which it formed or around 1147. When we get to the 1147/50 area, there will be some good support as shown on my 15-min chart. The longer term lower P1 channel line will be in this 1150 area tomorrow. If you favor the alternate count that we are in P3 headed to new highs, then this 1147/50 area (23% retrace since 1067 low) would be a good spot for a wave (4)-1-[1]-P3 to end and then we'll see more upside going into OPEX week for the continuation of (5)-1-[1]-P3. If you favor the primary count, then the move lower in wave (1)-[C]-P2 should pick up steam and head toward the 1120/29 area near-term. Also, for the alternate count if we consider that wave 1-[1]-P3 ened at 1173.56 today, then wave 2-[1]-P3 down would also target this 1120/33 area in a 38% to 50% fib retrace.

So in summary watch for a bounce at 1147/50 tomorrow to see of this wave up will extend or not. If a bounce comes, then it could signal new highs above 1173.52 going into next week (OPEX). If it breaks through this 1147/50 area, then we are lookinng at 1120/33 for both primary and alternate counts.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

10:20am EST: The SP-500 is a tipping point. If the 1177 resistance is broken to the upside, then the channel that has developed since the May 6th low of 1067 does support levels between 1190 and 1230 by OPEX Friday 21st. I slightly favor the 1177 resistance to hold and break-down of the bearish rising wedge to lead to levels around 1147/50. But if the bulls can break-through 1177 and then 1182, the short covering and popped stops means the upside potential for next week is very large.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:15am):

8:32am EST: ES Futures traded up to 1174.50 (1177.50 cash) and tested the 1177 long term pivot. Still in a wedge, but if 1177 is breached to the upside it could become a channel and extend upward. First upside targets are 1182 to 1190. To the downside we are looking for the lower wedge line to break-down and a drop to about 1147 should occur.

SP-500 ES Future 60-min Chart (8:01am):

May 12th, 2010: Wave Extension?

2010-05-12T07:11:00.005-05:00

6:30pm EST: Nothing has changed my thinking with today's action. Bear flag is in play. Still looks like it's trying to wedge it's way higher in this wave-v-C-[B]-P2. My minimum target for this wave from several days ago was 1174 (wave-v=0.62*wave-i). We almost got there today hitting 1173. There is room to wedge higher tomorrow to about the 1177 pivot. The price did cross the 13-day EMA (1168) to close at 1172. However, the 34-day EMA and 50-day SMA are both sitting at 1173 and resisted upper price movement today, similar to the behavior in Feb. I don't see anything impulsive in the price action on the triangle break-out above 1168, so I'm not sold on the triangle idea. Of course a gap up open could change that tomorrow. If that happens, then the triangle targets are in the 1182 to 1190 area.

My thinking at EOD is that the bearish rising wedge (bear flag) is in-play and a drop is coming in the near-term. Just what size and wave-structure the drop takes will help us sort out which count (primary or alternate) is correct. I have maximum tragets for the coming drop in the range of 1110 to 1133, but at a minimum the drop should go back to the start of rising wedge at 1147.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):12:00pm EST: So far the market is being rejected at the 13-day EMA (yesterday at 1170 and today at 1167) since the bear-cross over of the 34-day EMA on May 6th. This is what happened in late Jan-early Feb before the next big leg down.

SP-500 Daily Candles (11:43am):

11:10am EST: Triangle to new highs in the 1182/1190 area or Bear Flag (rising wedge) with a drop down to 1105/1110? Both formations are on the table this morning.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:00am):

8:05am EST: ES Futures traded all the way down to 1140 (1143 cash), but held at the all important 1134 (1137 cash) level that keeps the door open for my upside wave extention. At 8:00am this morning the ES Futures are back up to 1158 (1161 cash). The wave-iv or wave (4) triangle is still a possibility if this wave up wants to extend towards the 1182 to 1190 area.

SP-500 ES Future 60-min Chart (7:36am):

May 11th, 2010:

2010-05-11T07:33:00.007-05:00

5:45pm EST: All the conditions were met for 5-waves up on the primary count wave-v-C-[B]-P2. The 1170 level was hit, which is inside the resistance band of 1168 that we been watching. And there was rejection of prices at cluster of moving averages (13-day EMA, 34-day EMA, and 50-day SMA). Thus the primary count is that we have started down in wave [C]-P2, namely wave (1)-[C]-P2 The first target is to break the 1129.32 level (wave i-C-[B]-P2 peak) and head towards the gap support of 1121 go 1110. One cavet to this primary count is a possible consolidation triangle that could form between 1150 and 1170 for wave-iv-C-[B]-P2 if prices decide they need one more puch higher. The triangle target would be the 1190 area.

The alternate count is that wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 is completed and we are headed down for a retrace in wave 2-[1]-P3. The retrace target is the 1110/21 gap area or a 50% retrace. This alternate count is subject to same possibility of the wave (4)-1-[1]-P3 consolidation triangle if price decide that one more push higher is needed. Target is the same 1190 area.

What will separate the two counts is what happens once the 1110/21 gap area is reached. The primary count will continue to new lows below 1067 fo the completion of [C]-P2 and the alternate count will head to new highs above 1220 for the wave 3-[1]-P3.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

12:40pm EST: Here is the daily candle stick chart showing resistance in the 1168 to 1177 area. We have our new high for wave-v-C-[B]-P2 as expected. So far we reach the 1168.04 level, which is the start of a key resistance area. Going back to my comments from the EOD yesterday, I have the first target for this wave-v at 1174 (v=0.62i), a second target at 1182 (78% retrace), and third target at 1190 (v=i). Let's see how far this wave wants to run up.

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (12.27am):

11:15am EST: There has been some good discussion the last few days on trend change models vs E-wave analysis. The trend change model I like to use the the 13-day vs 34-day EMA cross-over. As long as the 13-day EMA remains on top of the 34-day, we are in a up trend. When it crosses under we are in a down trend. The last bull-cross was on Mar 1st, 2010. And we just got a bear-cross on the May 6th, 2010. This is one reason I'm still favoring the primary count that we are still in P2 as the May 6th bear-cross indicated a trend change. If this [B]-P2 wave dies out in this 1164 to 1182 area in the next fews days, then we should not get a new bull-cross and may head back down in the [C]-P2 wave to new lows below 1067 (First target is 1010). Also, remaining below the 13-day EMA after the bear-cross is very typical behavior. Right now the 13-day EMA is around 1170 and falling. However, if we can get above 1170 and more importanly above 1177 and remain there for a few days to week, then a bull-cross will likely be triggered and my alternate count will start to take over.

SP-500 Daily 13-day vs 34-day EMA Cross-Over Trend Model (11:15am):

8:30am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1040.50 (1143.30 cash equiv) overnight. It looks like wave-iv-C-[B]-P2 as not complete and yesterday's drop to 1148 was only wave-a of iv. Then the late day push to 1160 was wave-b of iv and now we are working on wave-c of iv down. The key level to watch for the primary count up to continue upward is the wave-i high 1129.32. If we trade above this level then wave-v-C-[B]-P2 can still reach more targert area of 1174 to 1190. For the alternate count the key level to stay above is 1137.24 for wave (4)-1-[1]-P3 and then wave (5)-1-[1]-P3 can continue upward.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:25am):

May 10th, 2010: P3 Underway?

2010-05-10T02:15:00.004-05:00

6:05pm EST: I have a couple likely counts, both of which are looking pretty good. I will still give the nod to the primary count for now. They are both pointing to at least one more wave up to a higher high than 1163.85. We should be able to start to differential betwen them during the next significant wave down.

For the primary count the surge at the end of today seems to confirm my thinking that we were in wave-iv-C-[B]-P2 for most of today. The push up should be wave-v and I have two targets of 1174 (v=0.62i) and 1190 (v-i). There is also a gap to be filled at 1181 and a 78% retrace target of 1182. So we have pretty good target range of 1174 to 1190. But all wave-v needs to do is exceed the wave-iii high of 1163.85 to be a complete 5-waves up. And there is a lot of resistance in the 1168 to 1177 band. After this wave C-[B]-P2 completes, I'm looking for A-[C]-P2 down to about get underway with a first target below 1105. We will know this C-[B] wave up is over once 1129.32 is breached.

For the alternate count where the P2 low is 1067, I have the count as wave (5)-1-[1]-P3. Again with the targets in the same 1174 to 1190 area. Once this wave 1-[1]-P3 completes, I'm looking for a retrace back to down at least 50% to the 1114 area for wave 2-[1]-P3. There is a large gap in the 1110 to 1120 left from today's gap up open that could be the the target. We will know this wave 1-[1] is complete is 1137.24 is breached. Obviously, P3 is just getting underway the the ultimate target for P3 could be a past 1575 in the months to years to come.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

9:20am EST: Here is a possible count on the ES Future 5-min Chart. The ES Futures hit 1161.75 (1164.75 cash equiv.) so the 1162 (62% retrace) taget for [B] of the primary count has been met. The next target is the 1182 (78% retrace). However, it is possible that my speculation that 1067 was the low for P2 is gaining some legs this this morning. The ES Futures 5-min Chart shows a possibe 5-wave count of the close of 1110 on Friday. We will need to watch the 1134 and 1129 levels to see if that hold on any down-side move today Near term, 1129 is the most critical level to hold to maintain the rally higher in this wave.

SP-500 ES Futures 5-min Chart (8:23am EST):

3:04am EST: No not that P3, the bullish P3!!! Remember my call from Friday May 7th for the alternate count of a P2 low at 1067? Next stop SP-500 1575+. :-) What better way to kick off P3 than a 40 point gap up open on Monday May 10th. Obviously, this could be the C-leg of the [B]-P2 retrace. But it could also be the wave (3)-1-[1]-P3 of then third leg of the bull market. ES Futures have touched 1147.75 (1150.25 cash equiv). The key area to watch on the upside will be the 62% re-trace of 1162 and then the wave (4) peak of 1177. A cross back over 1177 would be extremely bullish. A failure at the 1162 to 1177 area would be bearish and could mean wave [C]-P2 is underway with a target down to 1010.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (2:43am EST):

May 9th, 2010: Gap Up Monday?

2010-05-09T21:24:00.001-05:00

10:11pm EST: ES Futures have traded up to 1137 (1140 cash equivalent). A value above 1126 (1129) invalidates the contracting triangle scenario. My thinking tonight is that 1067 maybe have been the wave [A]-P2 low for the primary count. And we are an A-B-C up for the [B] wave of P2. The move on Friday May 7th may have been the i-ii of C of [B] and tomorrow will be wave iii of C of [B]. This [B] leg could be very interesting. At a minimum it should retest the broken P1 lower channel line at 1142 (a 50% retrace of [A]) or even back toward the 1168 pivot (62% retrace). However, [B] legs can be very tricky to map and can retrace 100% over even more of the [A] leg if it's a flat or expanded flat. So if the bulls can gap the SP-500 open above 1129 tomorrow in the cash market, then C of [B] leg up will be underway and the let the short covering rally begin. Most likely this [B] of P2 rally will last into options expiration on May 21st.

SP-500 ES Futures 4-min (9:57pm):

May 6th, 2010: The Day After

2010-05-07T08:17:00.005-05:00

6:20pm EST: In looking more at the alternate count where P2 would be the 1066 low from May 6th. The best labeling for this 3-wave [A]-[B]-[C] corrective is to have the P1 top at the Apr 15th peak of 1214. If you recall at the time it looked like the move from 1166 to 1214 was an ending diagonal that just very so slightly violated the wave (5) maximum peak. The rise up to 1220 can be labed [B]-P1. This would mean that P2 lasted about 3 weeks or 16 trading days and retraced about 27% of P1. Below are the updated 15-min and 60-min charts with the new alternate P2 lables. I'm not highly confident in this alternate P2 count, as I think P2 will likely play out into July-August with a 38% retrace to about 1010 (17.3% correction) as per my primary count. However is go back and look at previous secular bull markets (like years 1975 to 2000), there are very few pull backs deeper in price more that 10%. In fact the the technical definition of cyclical bear is a 20% pull-back. This 12.5 pull-back is the biggest one yet on the run from the 666 low. So until we get a pull-back deeper than 20%, I'm inclided to consider a 12.5% pull back as a potential P2 candidate.

15-min SP-500 (EOD #2):

60-min SP-500 (EOD #2):

4:55pm EST: The Primary Wave 2 (P2) correction is over. The Primary Wave 3 (P3) bull run has begun. Did I get your attention? Read on...

Primary count is that we are in a contracting triangle for wave (4)-[A]-P2. Legs A-B-C-D are complete. Working on Leg E-up to 1120 area for Monday. There should be a trust down out of the traingle for most of next week. The triangle mesuares (1137-1094 = 43 points). The triangle target is 1094-43=1051. However, the SP-500 just needs to make a new low under the May 6th low of 1066 in order to validate this count. This would complete wave [A]-P2. Then wave [B]-P2 should retrace 50% to 62% back up towards the broken P1 channel line around 1140 to 1160 over then 2 to 3 weeks. From there wave [C]-P2 should head down towards the 1010 (38% retrace) to 943 (50% retrace) target area by the July-August time frame. And that would complete P2.

The alternate count is going to shock some people. It's that Primary Wave 2 (P2) is complete at the 1066 low on May 6th, 2010. P2 began on April 26th at the 1220 high. So P2 will have ended in just 9 trading days or about 2 weeks time. P2 dropped 154 points or -12.6% from the P1 high. This is a retrace of 27.8% of the P1 bull run from 666 to 1220. This is the largest correction since the March 2009 low of 666. So far I only count 3-waves (A-B-C in purple) off the top. If a new low below 1066 is not made in the next week or two, then I will get a lot more confident in this count. Right now I'm not highly confident in this alternnate count, but it's a definitely possibility. Ironcially, just when the perma-bears are calling for a P3 down, we could get P3 up!!! And now that the Daily chart RSI is reset back to oversold at 30; there is plently of room to begin the next bull marktet rally.

Have a great weekend.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

1:25pm EST: Looking at the 15-min chart and it sure feels like a contracting triangle (A-B-C-D-E) for wave (4)-[A]-P2 with a drop for (5)-[A]-P2 yet to come down slightly below 1066. I have legs A-B-C of the triangle complete and we are working on D-E to finish out near 1115/20 before the drop down to new lows. But also, it could be a simple A-B-C up to back-test the broken channel line at 1143 for wave (4)-[A]-P2 or wave [B]-P2. Either case we will get a significant drop once this wave completes.

SP-500 15-min (1:15pm EST):

9:15am EST: My thinking this morning is that the drop to 1066 should be considered as legit. Consequenlty my view is that P1 has topped at 1220. I have updated the 60-min chart from the EDO to show the 1067 as the end of [A]-P2. I have the drop from 1177 to 1067 as a wave (5)-C. Wave (5)-C is a severe extention and wave (3)-C is not the shortest, so it can work within E-wave rules. So the bounce we are working on is [B]-P2. B waves are very irrelgular 3-wave moves and can retrace from 50% to over 100% (flat option). I have some fib targers of 1143 (50%), 1162 (62%), and 1182 (78%) for this wave [B]-P2. I think wave [B] will complete in the next few days to about 3 weeks, before wave [C]-P2 drops down to the 1010 level to completed P2 in about the July-Aug time frame. Of course P2 could drop further into the fall and I have some out fib levels for P2 if it wants to exend lower.

The alternate (purple) count I have right now is that 1220, was only the top of wave 1-[5]-P1 and the drop to 1066 was 2-[5]-P1. In this scenario 2-[5] was about a 85% retrace, which is excessive by allowed for wave 2's within E-wave rules. This count works as long as the Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045 is not breached. Obviously, this count in implies that we are already in wave 3-[5]-P1 and are headed to new highs above 1220. The bounce from 1067 to 1137 late yesterday was the start of wave (1) of 3-[5]-P1. I don't have any targets for alternate count yet, but will be working some up today.

SP-500 60-min Chart (Updated from EOD 5-6-10):

SP-500 Daily Chart (Updated for EOD 5-6-10):

May 6th, 2010:

2010-05-06T08:26:00.004-05:00

11:15pm EST: Here's the weekly chart going back a decade showing the 2 cyclical bear markets of the past decade and the one cyclical bull in between. The big question to be answered in the coming years is whether this March 2009 to present time is just another cyclical bull or is it a new secular bull similar to the secular bull run frm the 80's and 90's. The P1 label implies this is a new secular bull market. P2 can retrace all the way back down to 666 without chaning my view. So we have a long way to a go in charting out P2, assuming P1 has topped at 1220.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD):

5:25pm EST: Like the rest of you, I have no idea if the story about the 1 billion share (vs 1 million share) sell order is true or not. However, what we do know right not is that there was a break of the bull channel line at 1140 this afternoon and it triggered massive selling in the market. Whether not the SP-500 would have dropped to 1070 without the mistake, we'll never know for sure. I personally think the 1120 to 1130 level would have held as support.

Clearly Primary 1 (P1) as I have it labeled has topped at 1220. The wave 1-[5] level of 1112 was breached on the move down to the 1070 low. Thus we have wave 4-[5] overlap. So we have entered P2 and there are broad scale targets on my Daily chart for P2. I have also updated the 60-min chart to show the P1 top. My thinking is that wave (3)-1-[A]-P2 ended today at 1070 and we are in wave (4)-1-[A]-P2 with retrace targets of 1127 (38%) and 1145 (50%) which are typical wave 4 retrace area. We have already hit the 1127 level and closed at 1128. I expect tomorrow to be very volatile trading as this wave (4) settles out.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

9:25am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1156 (1159 cash) and have been weakening throughout the morning. A cash market value below 1158.15 will invalidate the primary count that the wave (5)-C-4-[5]-P1 has finished. The alternate count has wave (5)-C droping to at least 1154 and as low as 1140 before completion. I'm flipping the confidence weighting to 30/70 primary/alternate. Key levels on the upside to confirm the push lower is over is a break above 1181.62 and then 1186.32.

ES Futures (9:00am):

May 5th, 2010:

2010-05-05T07:40:00.020-05:00

6:00pm EST: Primary count remains unchanged, we have finished wave ii-(1)-5-[5]-P1 this afternoon at 1160.80. We are beginning wave iii-(1) up. This primary count has a quick resolution of 5-[5]-P1 in the next two to three weeks in the 1225 area.

I have had a change of opinion on the alternate count. I just don't believe P1 has topped. I have had the three white (bull market) channel lines for P1 on my Daily chart since Aug 2009. We have yet to trade below the lower channel line. The Feb 5th low of 1045 turned around right at the lower channel line without me having to modify the line. Notice that the SP-500 has traded in the lower half of the channel since the Feb 5th low. The 1220 high occurced right at the mid-channel line and now the SP-500 is moving toward the lower channel line. Right now (May 5th) that lower channel line is a 1138 and it will be around 1145 late next week. The large Head and Shoulders projects to this 1140 area. The C=1.62A for 4-[5]-P1 projects to this 1145 area. There is a 62% retrace of wave 3-[5] at 1136 and a 50% retrace at 1154. So all that said, my alernate count (purple) is that we are in a wave (4)-C-4-[5]-P1 triangle here between 1158 and 1177. We have had legs a-b and are working on c-leg up. After a few more days rattling around inside the triangle, we will drop in a wave (5)-C-4-[5]-P1 down to the 1140/50 area some time next week. Then we'll start wave 5-[5]-P1 up to a final target of 1250 to 1275. If we drop down to the 1140/50 area for this alternate count, then I'm projecting the final 5-[5]-P1 rise to take a most of May and June and finish out in July.

Right now both of those counts are about equally likely, although I will stick with a 70/30 weighting that 1158 will hold as the low and the primary count is correct. The positive (if you are bullish) is that I'm nearly 100% condfident that we will see a higher, high for P1 in the 1225 to 1275 range.

It will take a break below my lower white channel line for me to call that the P1 top is in (so somewhere below 1140 in the next week) and a break of 1112 confirms the P1 top by E-wave rules.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-miin Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:45pm EST: The premium service subscribers have been seeing this updated chart this morning. The primary count as v-C-4-[5]-P1 ended at 1158.15. I believe the move up to 1176 was wave i-(1)-5-[5]-P1. Currently in a drop to the 1168 area for wave ii-(1). And then wave iii-(1) should take out the key levels of 1181.62 and 1186.32 on the way toward the 1190/1200 area for wave (1)-5 completion.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:35pm):

8:35am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1163 (1166 cash equiv.). A breach below 1168 in the cash markets would result in another leg down for wave v-C-4-[5]-P1 with a target in the 1154/63 area. A push above 1186.32 would confirm the move down is over the primary count. For the althernate count we would have wave (3)-1-[A]-P2 continuing down to the 1150/55 area. A push above 1181.62 would confirm the wave down of the alternate count is over.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:01am):

May 4th, 2010:

2010-05-04T08:09:00.004-05:00

5:00pm EST: The 50-day SMA and 1168 pivot from 2005 held as support. A late afternoon lower low at 1168.12 was bought heavily into the close. My leaning is 60/40 that wave v-C-4-[5] is complete for the new primary count (was 2nd alternate EOD yesterday). However, if 1168 is taken out early tomorrow the next logical target is 1154 were wave v=i. Below 1150, I would lean toward the new alternate that P1 topped at 1220. In which case, the SP-500 is in wave (3)-1-[A]-P2. Looking for (5)-1-[A] to end near the head and shoulders target of 1140.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:30pm EST: Watching the 50-day SMA and 1168 pivot from 2005 for support. Notice the 50-day SMA did not hold as support in Jan 10. It did for one day then sliced right through it with another big drop the next day. Well history repeat?

SP-500 Daily Candles (1:23pm EST):

11:00am EST: The primary count and 1st alternate were eliminated on the break of 1186.32 and then 1181.62 this morning. We are tracking the 2nd alternate as the new primary. Here is a look at the 15-min chart from 5-3-10 EOD, that the premium subcribers saw yesterday afternoon. No labels have been moved and this mornings price action has been added. We are tracking the 2nd alternate labels fairly close today. However, I had only a 20% confidence level on this 2nd alternate at EOD yesterday, and 50% weighting on the primary count and 30% on the 1st alternate. So I definitely missed on this call.

SP-500 15-mnin Chart (10:45am, with Labels from EOD 5-3-10):

9:05am EST: ES Futures traded down to 1186 (1189 cash) and are falling rapidly this AM. The 1186.32 level is a keep to hold for the primary count an the first 1st alternat (purple) large triangle. There is a gap at 1186.32 to 1189 from yesterday to act as support. A breach of 1186.32 and the 2nd alternate (red) is in-play and the prices could be headed for 1170 (C=A) or 1140 (C=1.62A). Also the Head and Shoulders neckline is at 1180 with completion a target of 1140.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:31am):

May 3rd, 2010:

2010-05-03T09:27:00.002-05:00

5:45pm EST: The SP-500 broke every so slightly out of the large contracting triangle to the upside on the move to 1205 today. And it was a bullish close back above the 13-day EMA of 1198. For the primary count of i-(3)-5-[5]-P1, I believe there is one more wave up to 1210 to confirm, which would invalidate both of the wave 4-[5]-P1 alternate counts of the large contracting triangle (purple) and large A-B-C Zig-Zag (red). The large triangle count could trade down to 1188/1190 in the E-leg before breaking higher in wave 5-[5]-P1. The triangle target measure to 1260. The C-leg of the large A-B-C could trade down to 1170 (C=A) or even 1140 (C=1.62A). The 1140 target coincides with the Head and Shoulders pattern that measures 40 points and has a neck-line a 1180. Attached below is my 60-min chart EOD.

I have re-done both my 15-min and 5-min charts EOD, with some near term targets and confidence levels on all three of the counts. This information was sent to my premium service subscribers. Also, the premium subcribers are going to be receiving a hyper-link to my real-time 15-min and 5-min charts so that the can watch the trend-line breaks and have access to my counts throughout the trading day. It's not to late to join the PUG Alert Newsletter Service for May, as we just getting under-way with some new features.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

10:20am EST: I got busy this morning and could not post to the blog this morning. But I did generate a ES Futures chart for my premium service subscribers. So here is the ES Futures chart from 7:40am this morning. The primary count is that the (2)-5 bottom came at 1186 on Friday and that today we began the wave (3)-5 up to a 1225/30 target area. The alternate is shown in purple and is either an A-B-C correction for wave 4-[5] off the 1220 peak with a 1170 target or an A-B-C-D-E triangle for wave 4-[5], with legs A-B-C complete and the D-leg up to the 1200/02 in progress with E-leg down to 1190/92 yet to come.

SP-500 ES Futures (7:40am):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD 4-30-10):

May 1st, 2010: Keeping It Simple

2010-05-01T13:45:00.003-05:00

5-2-10 (10:50am EST): Here is the SP-500 weekly chart showing the past decade of price action and some key horizontal resistance and support levels. Holding above the 1168 and then 1133 levels on any pull-back is a key for the bull case in the intermediate term.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD 4-30-10):

1:50pm EST: Here is the 13-day vs 34-day EMA chart I like to pull-out when the market enters a tipping point and the counts become a little less clear. This is a daily chart of the SP-500 going back to the July 8th, 2009 low of 869. On the chart I have the 13-day (green) vs 34-day (blue) EMA (Exponetial Moving Average) and the 200-day (red) SMA (Simple Moving Average). One simple way of the trading the market is to go long when the 13-day EMA crosses the 34-day EMA. On July 16th, 2009 there was a bull cross at a closing price of 941. This bull cross stayed in affect until Jan 27th, 2010 where the 13-day EMA crossed back below the 34-day EMA with a closing price of 1097. If you traded this way, you would have netted an impressive +16.9% gain on +159 SP-500 points. There was a very near bear cross on Nov 5th, 2009 but the market turned around and the bull cross from July 16th, 2009 remained in affect through Jan 2010. The latest bull cross happened on Mar 1st, 2010 at 1116 for the close. So you would have gotten out at 1097 and back in at 1116, missing just 19 points but protecting your capital against a much better pontential drop that did not materialize as 1045 held support. This bull cross is still in effect today with the SP-500 at 1186 close of Apr 30th, 2010. Right now the 13-day EMA is at 1197.6 and has rolled over and is headed down. The 34-day EMA is at 1182.5 and is flattening out. So far the 34-day EMA has held the first two attempts to push lower. The first two weeks of May will be critical to maintaining the bull cross.

Another feature to focus on with the chart are the paralle lines, in particular the upper green parallel line. There have been 6 touches (1080, 1101, 1115, 1150, 1214, and 1220) on this upper line since July 2009. The SP-500 has backed off rather aburptly after each touch. So far this recent touch at 1214 and 1220 looks a lot like the Nov 2009 area around 1115, where a consolation triangle formed before the push to 1150 into Jan 2010. Obviously, following reaction at the 1150 touch in mid January was very severe and produced a -105 point (-9.1% correction). Next looking at the two mid-channel parallel white lines. These white channel lines held support from Sept 09 to Jan 10. I suspect that these white lines will provide some support, in particular the upper white channel line. The 1150 Jan high could come into play at the second white mid-channel line.

Finally, my line in the sand for this P1 leg of the bull market to continue is 1112 (i.e the top of wave 1-[5]-P1). A breach of this level and/or the lower green chanele line (which is paralleling the 200-day SMA at 1090 as of the close Apr 30th) would indicate that P1 is over and P2 has begun. The 13-day EMA vs 34-day cross will likely be an early warning sign of this trend change.

SP-500 Daily 13 vs 34-day EMA (EOD 4-30-10):

Apr 30th, 2010: April Ends

2010-04-30T07:57:00.003-05:00

4:50pm EST: Bearish close to be sure. I have to move to a 50/50 confidence stance between the primary and alternate counts. We had 78% re-trace move up to 1209 and now a 78% re-trace down to 1186. This could still be the primary count wave (2) low and up we go in wave (3) toward 1125/30. However, these type of wild swings says triangle to me. So I have added a new contracting triangle option to the alternate count for wave 4-[5]. Maybe we have the D-leg up to 1205 and E-leg down to 1193 yet to come. If we don't get a push any lower on Monday and start to head back up then back down, the triangle count will look very attractive. The 34-day EMA has moved up to 1183 and it will be the next key to hold.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

8:52am EST: ES Futures were in tight range overnight, 1202.5 to 1207.8 (1206.5 to 1211.8 cash equiv). This is typical of a wave-iv. First quarter GDP came in-line at 3.2%. Not particularly market moving. I suspect we might hang in this wave-iv of (1)-5 for most of the day. Some type of triangle my form. We could have to wait for for Monday to see the wave-v of (1)-5 completion in the 1212/1215 area. Conversely, if we start to head a little lower in the cash market down to the 1196/1198 area, then wave (1)-5 could be over and we could be seeing the wave (2)-5 drop today and Monday will begin the wave (3)-5 move.

April was another suscessful month in staying on the correct side of the trade for the PUG Alert Newsletter Service. If you would like to join for May, then send me an e-mail pu_gridiron@yahoo.com .

SP-500 ES Futures (8:30am):

Apr 29th, 2010: Follow-Thru to the Upside?

2010-04-29T07:08:00.006-05:00

4:20pm EST: SP-500 produced the follow-thru to the upside as predicted and closed above key support of 1200. Primary count is wave iii-(1)-5-[5]-P1 completed today around 1209, working on wave-iv and there is a little more room left for wave-v of (1) to hit 1215 area. I'm looking for a wave (2) pull-back to the 1200 area after wave (1) completes. The alternate (purple) has been changed to a wave 3-[5] peak at 1219.80 and a larger wave 4-[5] flat to 1170 with the B-leg up just completing today near 1210.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

8:00am EST: ES Futures are up to the 1196/97 (1200 cash equiv), this morning. As I said in the EOD of update yesterday, "A pop up in the morning over 1196/1198 and a close over the 13-day EMA (1198) would put the bulls back in control and confirm the primary count that the flat for wave [4]-5 had finished and the SP-500 is headed to new highs in 5-[5]-P1." We have the pop up, let's see if it holds and closes above 1998/1200 for confirmation. Also, for the primary count we are in wave iii-(1)-5-[5]-P1; target is the 1210/15 area before a wave (2) pull-back to 1200.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:09am):

Also, take a look at the positive divergence that developed on the NYSE McCellan Oscillator between the Apr 19th vs Apr 27th price lows. I used this type of McCellan Oscillator positive to divergence to help predict the Feb 5th bottom and forecast the agressive bull run the sP-500 is in now (see my Feb 5th McCellan chart below).

NYSE McCellan Osc (EOD 4-28-10):

NYSE McCellan Osc (EOD 2-5-10):

Apr 28th, 2010: Fed Day

2010-04-28T07:36:00.005-05:00

4:40pm EST: I'm unsure wheter this C-leg of 4-[5] for the primary count is complete or not. There is a possible wave-iv contracting triangle playing out for wave-iv of C-4-[5] with wave-v down to 1172 (C=1.62A) for the expanded flat yet to come. However, a pop up and over 1196/98 tomorrow morning with a close over the 13-EMA EOD, when mean wave 4-[5]-P1 of the primary count is complete and wave 5-[5]-P1 is underway for the primary count. Wave 5-[5]-P1 projects to 1235 to 1275. If the market spits the bit at the 1198/1206 area tomorrw and drops hard, it would mean that the alternate count (in red) is in play, where wave (2)-1-[A] rises to 1200/06 and the falls hard for wave (3)-1-[A].

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

3:05pm EST: Fed remains dovish on future interest rate hike. Support at 1181 has held. You can see on this daily candle that the SP-500 is trapped between the 34-day EMA at 1181 and the 13-day EMA at 1198. The RSI, MACD and Full STO indicators are all bearish. A break-through and close above or below one of these two key levels will set the near-term direction. I have the SP-500 in a possible contracting triangle for wave-iv of C of 4-[5], with a wave-v drop towards 1172 yet to come. However a close above 1196 (20-SMA) or certainly above 1198 (13-day EMA) would change this to a bullish near term count of wave (1)-5-[5] is underway.

Notice how in the Jan correction the SP-500 crashed through the 34-day EMA as if it offered no support. Then the 13-day EMA contained any attempt to move higher for the better part of 3-weeks. This time it's different, as the 34-day EMA has held as support thus far. A lot of people thinking we are in for a severe correction like Jan. But so far it's not the same. If we can hold this 1181 area for another day or two, things will get real bullish again, particulary we close over the 13-day EMA.

SP-500 Daily Candles (2:57pm EST):

8:35am EST: ES Futures dipped a little further overnight to 1176.8 (1180.8 cash) and have since rebounded as high as 1187.2 (1190.2). As I said in yesterday EOD, I count 5-waves down off the 1219.80 high. Wave v of the drop is roughly equal to wave i at 15 and 16 points, respecttively. Primary count has this as the completion of the C-leg down of the A-B-C flat. However if wave-v were to extend to be v=1.62i, then I get 1174 or very near the 1172 C=1.62 target of the expanded flat. The level to watch early today is whether 1190 is breached to the upside in the cash market, if it is then this wave-v down is over. Then we should be looking at the 1200/06 area for wave (1)-5-[5] or in alternate count wave (2)-1-[A] bounce.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:09am):

Apr 27th, 2010: Ending Diagonal?

2010-04-27T07:52:00.007-05:00

9:20 pm EST: Here's quick look at the bigger picture of what may lie beyond P1 for P2. The maximum P1 top I have currently have is 1277. Assuming 1220 was the top of P1 I have placed some P2 targets onto the Daily. However, I fully expect P1 to resume it's upward march to towards the 1235 to 1275 area by late May or early June. In which case the P2 targets will be revised upward. Also, I expect P2 to be a simple [A]-[B]-[C] Zig-Zag.

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

6:15pm EST: I count 5-waves down off the 1219.80 high. The last wave-v is similar in length to wave-v. It's possible this wave 4-[5] flat has ended at 1181.62 this afternoon. However, there is a potential for this wave-v to stretch dwon towards 1172 (C=1.62A). Once finished, I'm expecting a wave (1)-5-[5] move up to begin that should push up towards 1200. In the alternate count (shown in red) where P1 topped at 1219.80, 5-waves down for wave (1)-1-[A] is complete at 1181.62 and we should see a bounce of at least 50% for wave (2) towards 1200 or 1206 (62%).

Also, there is a potential for a large rectangle to have formed between 1180 and 1220 could take weeks to play out in a wave 4-[5] consolidation, similar to the Nov-Dec 2010 rectangle.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:05pm EST: The break through of the green lower trendline and the 1200 level of support, indicates that the alternate count for the wave 4-[5] expanded flat should be moved to the primary count. The target for C=1.62A is 1172. The SP-500 has hit 1187.38 thus far. I believe waves i-ii-iii of C are complete and are currently working on wave-iv of C. The new alternate count is that Primary Wave 1 (P1) concluded at 1219.80 on Monday, Apr 26th and wave are in wave (1) of 1 of [A] of P2. P2 could play out as a large [A]-[B]-[C] corrective.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:45am):

8:45am EST: The ES Futures traded down to 1202.20 (1206.2 cash equiv.) and is making a case for the ending diagonal count for wave 5 of [5]-P1. Wave (3)-5 may have ended yesterday at 1219.80. Wave (4)-5 looks to be targeting the 1200/05 area. Support is at the 13-day EMA 1202 and the 20-day SMA 1195. A break under 1195/1200 and the alternate count for the expanded flat down to 1172 is in play.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:05am):

Apr 26th, 2010:

2010-04-25T21:26:00.002-05:00

4:30pm: Well we had a bearish Monday. This has been about as rare as hens teeth since the March 2009 low. Could it be telling us something about the changing trend? We'll have to keep an watchful eye on this weeks price action to find out.

For the primary count, wave iv-(3) is pushing the limit of iv-i overlap as it touched 1211.07 which is just above the wave i-(3) high of 1210.99 (see 15-min chart). And the SP-500 closed at 1212.05, so it will take a flat or gap open to save this primary count as it's currently labeled. If 1210.99 is violated in the morning, then I will likely move the completion of (3) to the 1219.80 high from today. This would be mean the SP-500 has already entered the final Ending Diagonal as wave (4) will have overlapped (1) by crossing under 1213.92 late today. Wave (4) could then drop to as low as the lower green channel line near 1200/05 tomorrow, before wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 completes the ED above 1220 later this week. That will become the new primary count if 1210.99 is taken out tomorrow.

The new alternate count (purple) for the expanded flat is very much in-play if 1200 and lower green channel line support it broken. The wave B of this flat would be complete today at 1219.80 and wave i of the 5-wave C-leg down could have begun late this afternoon. The target for this C-leg is 1172 based on C=1.62A. The B-leg measured out very well as 1.22A, almost hitting the 1221 predicted target. There is a big-time negative divergence to the daily RSI at today's new SP-500 price high. This divergence could fore-tell a sudden drop that is coming. The FOMC meeting announcement on Wed (4-28) could be the trigger for this alternate count to play out. If this alternate count plays out, it could ultimately lead to higher highs above 1220 later in May or June (see the 60-min chart). Or it could be the start of P2 and P1 will have ended here near 1220. We'll have to watch the wave action closely this week for clues.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

4-26-10, 8:25am: ES hit 1216.70 (1220.70 cash equiv) overnight. I'm seeing a possible rising wedge on the ES chart with a target near 1218/1220 (1122/1224 cash equiv) today.

4-25-10, 10:20pm: Late evening, ES Futures are hitting a new recovery high of 1215 (1219 cash) after a quick back-test of the 1210 (1214) break-out from Friday. Staying above 1210 (1214) is a key for continuaon to highs early tomorrow.

ES Futures 60-min Chart (4-25, 10:01pm):

Apr 23rd, 2010: The Future New Highs

2010-04-23T02:58:00.006-05:00

5:45pm EST: Here are the updated 15-min, 60-min, and Daily charts. The primary count is wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 is underway. Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is the 1235 to 1238 area sometime around May 5th. 1235 is where W5=W1 and 1238 is the Inverse H&S target. For the alternate count, I have decided to go with the ascending triangle for wave 4-[5] with a minumum target of 1244 for completion around May 25th. Although since this alternate is only in wave i-(1)-5-[5]-5-P1, there is possibility for an extention up to the 1275 (W5=1.62W1) area. Also, the reason I chose the ascending triangle for wave 4-[5] of the alternate count is that there is alternatation with the wave 2-[5] Zig-Zag.

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SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

3:30pm EST: Potential break-out move during the final hour of trading. SP-500 has hit a new recovery high of 1215.67 this afternoon. We have had a 15-min candle close over the previous high of 1213.92 and now need a 60-min candle, which would also be the EOD close, over 1213.92 to confirm the break-out going into Monday. Another bullish Monday on tap? Maybe a super bullish Monday?

SP-500 15-min Chart (3:30pm):

11:00am EST: Here is the updated 15-min chart. Notice that the run up to 1213.42 this AM could have been the D or B leg of the ascending triangle. If it's the D-leg just one more drop for E-leg and then up and out. But if it's only the B-leg then this could drag into next week with additinal consolidation between the 13-day EMA at 1198 and the 1214 flat top of the ascending bullish triangle.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:45am):

3:55am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1198 (1201 cash equiv). Looks like the E-leg of the wave 4-[5] triangle in the alternate count could be playing out out. There is an inverse head and shoulders on the ES Futures that projects to 1220 (1223 cash equiv.). I would think the cash market will try to hold 1198/1200 this morningl as the 13-day EMA is at 1197 at the close of 4-22.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (3:23am):

Apr 22nd, 2010:

2010-04-22T07:29:00.006-05:00

4:40pm EST: If you are not a follower yet, and you appreciate my blog posts continuing throughout the day, then please use the link to the right to become a follower of this blog. Let's ramp the number of followers up and keep making more trading profits :-). Also, thanks for all the great intra-day comments. Some great discussion and ideas are coming out in the comments section. Keep sharing your ideas and thoughts so all of us can learn and profit from it.

4:25pm EST: Wow, a 20 point bullish reversal from 1190.18 to 1210.27 on the SP-500! You don't see those every day. Bears covered their shorts around 1197 today and added fuel to the fire. Both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 set new highs today. The DOW-30 and SP-500 will likely follow in the near term.

Primary count has the SP-500 in wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1. Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is 1225 to 1235 (near where W5=W1).

Alterante count has the SP-500 in wave i-(3)-5-[5]-P1 or D-4-[5] (ascending triangle option). Target for 5-[5]-P1 completion is 1250 to 1275 (where W5=1.62W1). If the ascending triangle plays out, then maybe a drop to test 1198/1200 in the E-leg before launching higher. The triangle target would be 1214 + 40 = 1254.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:45am EST: As I stated in my initial AM update, maybe another large contracting triangle for the alt 4-[5] count.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:35am):

11:00am EST: The 20-SMA (1190) contained the drop lower this morning. And the SP-500 is back trading near the 13-day EMA of (1195). If the low of 1190.18 holds up today, then here is the bigger picture 60-min chart that I see as relavent. The new lower green channel line on the chart looks to be very important, and in hind-sighgt the drop to 1184 last Friday may have been 4-[5] as shown in the alternate count. Either way, if we can hold above 1190 the rest of today, it could set the stage for some impressive SP-500 gains over the next few weeks to a month.

SP-500 60-min Chart (10:50am):

8:25am EST: ES Futures traded down to 1192.20 (1195.20 cash equiv). Looks like a good chance the 1198/1200 gap will be closed in the early trading today. I'll be watching for the 13-day EMA at 1195 to hold as support. This area would be the b-leg of (3)-5-[5] of the primary count. Also, watching for a possible wave iii down of the c-leg of the 3-3-5 flat alternate count (purple). If the 13-day EMA support at 1195 is crossed then the alternate count heading towards 1181 would be in play. I'm also considering the possiblity of a large contracting triangle for the alternate count for wave 4-[5], in this case it would stop short of 1181 at about 1188/92.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:34am):

Apr 21st, 2010: Watching the Top

2010-04-21T07:04:00.006-05:00

6:07pm EST: Time to simplify things again. I never should have entertained the P1 top was in place without a close under the 13-day EMA. The 13-day EMA is sitting at 1195.5, just under the 1198/1200 gap support. It will take a close under this area to get me more bearish for the near term. The trend reminds up until proven otherwise.

The primary count has been changed to what I was calling the 2nd alternate. However, there is a significant difference. I'm thinking the wave 5-[5]-P1 is going to be an ending diagonal (ED) after all. Long drawn out moves like the run from Feb 5th until now tend to terminate as an ED pattern as they reach the exhaustion point for new buyers. I thought we had a ED for wave 5-[5]-P1 when the 1214 high was formed last week. But if you remember it went just past the 1212.90 limit invalidating the ED. Well, now I think that might just have been wave (1)-5-[5] of the ED and the drop to 1183.68 was wave (2). We have been working on wave (3) the past three days. Each wave of an ED should count as 3-wave moves and that is what I see is going on here. Wave-a of (3) hit 1210.99 today. We are now falling back in wave-b of (3) that could be complete today at 1198.85 or might need a little more pull-back tomorrow to close the 1198 gap and test the 13-day EMA near 1195.5. Then we should get wave-c of (3) up towards 1220. And finally wave (5) of this larger ED projects to about 1225 to 1235 by early May. That will be the P1 top. Also, the peak of P1 will likely show strong negative divergence on the RSI compared with the 1214 high, setting the SP-500 for a much larger fall to begin P2.

The 1st and only alternate count remains that 1214 was the top of 3-[5]-P1 and that we are working in 4-[5]-P1 back down. I have 4-[5] playing out as a 3-3-5 (a-b-c) wave flat. Waves-a and -b are complete and we are working on wave-c back down toward 1181 for the conclusion of wave 4-[5]. Then wave 5-[5] can begin and will project to new highs between 1235 and 1275 in late May or early June. Also, not that this 3-3-5 flat option for wave 4-[5] would satisfiy the rule of alternation be waves 2 and 4, since wave 2-[5] was a 5-3-5 Zig-Zag.SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

10:35am EST: There was a pull-back reaction to the first test of the 1210/12 gap this morning. The 1210.99 high of the day interestingly occured at the intersection of the long standing (since Feb 5th) light blue lower channel line and the more recent yellow upper channel line. Watching for the pull-back toward the 1197/1200 gap, the reaction there should tell us which count is correct.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:30am):

8:00am EST: Futures hit 1209.40 (1212.40 cash equiv) overnight, so not new high but very close. The have since back-of to about 1203.50 (1206.50 cash equiv.). Watching to see the SP-500 challenges the 1210/12 gap in early trading today in a samll wave v, then backs off. All 3 options are still valid. For the primary and 1st alternate we are looking for a hard sell-off towards 1184 or below. For the 2nd alternate we are looking for a sell-off to 1195/1200 and then a bounce to new highs above 1214.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:03am):

Apr 20th, 2010:

2010-04-20T09:00:00.009-05:00

5:00pm EST: Nothing changed going into the close. Maybe one more push up towards 1210/12 in wave v of the c-leg of the flat for wave (2) primary count or wave-b of the 1st alternate count. There is gap at the 1212 area that could be the target. If 1213.92 is exceeded, then the primary count and 1st alternate count are invalid. The 2nd alternate is looking better as this wave up continues. I have us in wave 1-(3)-5-[5]-P1 of the this 2nd alternate count. We should see wave 2-(3) pull-back to about 1195/1200 after the wave 1-(3) peaks around 1210/14. Ultimate targerts are 1235 for (3)-5 and 1275 for (5)-5 just ahead in May.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

2:55pm EST: Looking at the Daily Candle Chart there are some bearish warning signs in the technicals. The MACD is still in a bearish cross configuration and the histogram bars are below the zero line. The Full STO is still on a bearish cross. The RSI is well below it's peak. This technicals on the chart would tend to indicate that the SP-500 should continue to fall after this bounce. The chart also "looks" like 1214 was the 3-[5] peak and we are in a wave 4-[5] pull-back for the 1st alternate scenario. However, the bullish closes above the 13-day EMA would support the 2nd alternate count.

SP-500 Daily Chandle Chart (2:45pm):

1:45pm EST: I have re-labeled the primary count for wave (1) down to 1186.77, then wave (2) as an expanded flat (3-3-5) move 1197.10, 1183.58 and 1208.58. This 5-wave move up to 1208.58 was a back-test of the broken light blue channel line from Feb 5th. We should start to see a hard sell-off up in wave (3) down or wave-c down of the primary and 1st alternte counts with lows below 1183.58. The 2nd alternate count has 5-waves up off 1183.58 for wave 1-(3). For the 2nd Alternate, we should see a wave 2-(3) pull-back towards 1195/1200 and then a bounce in wave 3-(3) to new highs above 1214.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:45pm):

9:55am EST: Here is the updated 15-min chart with the open higher today up to 1205.65 in early trading. So far the 78% retrace target of 1207 for wave (2) of 1-[A]-P2 has contained the move for the primary count. This aggressive move higher today, just maybe a back-test of the busted ligh blue channel that has been in force since the Feb 5th lows. However it could be something much more bullish and I have added back the alternate #2 count (in yellow) for the wave (2)-5-[5]-P1 drop to 1183.68. This would mean we have entered wave (3)-5-[5]-P1 and new highs above 1214 are coming near term and fortells of potential P1 highs upwards of 1275 later in May. Now that he 1200 level as been recaptured, holding above 1200 as support will be very bullish and help to confirm the alternate #2 count is correct. Consersely dropping back under 1200 would be bearish.

All three counts the primary, 1st alternate (purple) and 2nd alternate (yellow) are in play.

SP-500 15-min Chart (9:50am EST):

Apr 19th, 2010: Key Day

2010-04-19T07:12:00.004-05:00

3:55pm EST: Both the Primary and Alternate counts are in sync wih a move up toward 1199 (50% retrace) to 1207 (78% retrace) in the next day or two and then a drop towards 1150 to 1165 going into next week. From there the two counts start to diverge as the primary heads much lower towards 1130 for wave 1-[A]-P2 and the alternate will be setting a new high above 1214 in wave 5-[5]-P1.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

1:50pm EST: I only see 3 waves down of wave v of (1), so maybe one more drop to about 1181 or as low as 1177 (pivot). Then wave (2) back up to 1195/1200. Looking a potential double shouldered H&S pattern with neck-line near 1181 and target down to about 1150.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:30pm):

11:55am EST: With the drop below the 1186.77 low of Friday, we now have 5-waves down. Alternate #2 in yellow is invalid now. This would be wave v of (1) of 1 of [A] in the primary count with a target of 1181 to 1185. For Alternate #1 (purple) this would wave v of a of 4-[5]. Once this wave v drop is over, we are looking for wave (2)-1-[A] to retrace back up to 1200. And for the alternate count the onc wave v of a is over, we are looking for wave b back up to 1200.

10:05am EST: So far no new lower low under 1186.77, and thus only 3-waves off the top of 1214. Alternate #2 (yellow) count for wave (2)-5-[5], now shows a possile i-ii of (3)-5-[5]. Also, on the daily candle chart you can see that the 13-day EMA (1191) is holding as support thus far. This is a bullish sign. So, until 1186.77 is taken out, the Alternate #2 is alive and kicking.

SP-500 Daily Candles 4-19-10 (10:03am):

8:07am EST: ES Futures have traded down to 1182.70 (cash equiv 1186.70), which is right at the Friday cash market low of 1186.77. The key today is to see if we get a new low below 1186.77 for a 5th wave down in the cash market. If we do, then it eliminates the alternate 2 (yellow) count for wave (2)-5-[5]. If we get the 5th wave down, then we either have (1)-1-[A]-P2 of the primary count or wave a-4-[5]-P1 of the 1st alternate count (purple). In either of those counts, we could expect a bounce back up to around 1200 in wave (2) or wave-b.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:43am):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD, 7-16):

Apr 16th, 2010: OPEX Day

2010-04-16T07:31:00.008-05:00

6:20pm EST: Is the P1 top in? Maybe or maybe not. My primary count says yes, but I have two alternate counts that say no.

OK, so the SP-500 closed above the 13-day EMA (1190.60) at 1192.13, which is some what bullish going into Monday for a continued bounce. And when I look at the waves off the top, it looks like we only have 3-wave completed on the drop to 1186.77. Hmmm... Then if you take the trend-line from the symmetric triangle wave 4-[5] and extend it out, you can see that today's low of 1186.77 hit it precisely and then it bounced up to 1197. This lower yellow trend line has held several times now. And this leaves open the possibility of a new very bullish 2nd alternate count labeled in yellow. What if this drop today was wave (2) of 5-[5]-P1? It retraced 27 points of the 48 points of wave (1), which is right between a 50% and 62% retrace and typical of a wave 2. Very interesting, as the drop today did the trick to reset all of the daily over-bought conditions. This new alternate count in yellow means that the P1 top is not in, in fact it means the P1 top is likely much higher near the 1275 upper target in late May.

We will know how things shake out right away on Monday, because if the the primary count or 1st alternate (purple) is correct, then there should be a wave-v down to new lows under 1186.77 for both of those counts. By the way, the 1st alternate count targets are P1 top near 1235 in early to mid-May after testing the 1150 to 1165 area next week.

Thanks for all of the comments today. There were some great input, ideas and forecasts. I hope we can keep it going. Don't forget to sign up as a "Follwer" of the blog with the link on the right hand colunm. Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-5000 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

2:50pm EST: This Daily Candle Stick chart of XLF (Financial Stocks) is about as bearish as they come. Closing under the 13-day EAM of 16.46 could set the stage for a drop to the 15.75 low.

XLF Daily Chandle Stick Chart (2:42pm):

2:30pm EST: Here's a look at the Daily Candle Stick chart this afternoon. Interestingly, it's not as bearish as the E-wave counts are looking. Assuming a close above the 13-day EMA of 1191, then things look somewhat bullish for the near term. This doesn't mean new high is coming, but that the current bounce may countinue into Monday. A close below the 13-day EMA opens the door for a test of the 34-day EMA near 1167.

SP-500 Daily Candle Stick Chart (2:22pm):

12:25pm EST: We now have a new lower lower at 1188.64. This confirms that the near term top is in place at 1213.94. I think we could have a failed wave (5) or the ending diagonal had just about 1 point of over-throw above the 1212.90 maximum calculation. Either way, the top is in for the near term.

We now have to start looking for what comes next on the down side. I going to call this 1214 as the end of wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 of the primary count. Primary Wave 1 (P1) has toppped after an impressive run from 666 to 1214. So we will be working on wave (1) of A of a very large A-B-C correction for P2 (Primary Wave 2) that could retrace 123 (23%) to 208 (38%) points on the SP-500. This large A-B-C correction will likely be a 5-3-5 single Zig-Zag. Wave [A] will have 5 waves. This move down today might just wave (1) of 1 of [A]. It should be wrapping up here around 1188. The we should get a wave (2) bounce back up to about 1200 (50% retrace) early next week.

Alternately, we could have only hit wave 3-[5]-P1 at 1214 yesterday. And we are having the wave 4-[5]-P1 correction back down to 1165 (38% retrace). In this case we have just completed wave-a of an a-b-c zig-zag for this wave 4-[5]. This will mean wave-b is going back up to about 1200 early next and then wave c down to 1165 later next week. This count would allow P1 to make new high in the 1235 to 1275 range somtime in May.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:05pm):

10:05am EST: SP-500 has traded down to 1203.96 (38% retrace), which is in my target zone of 1200 to 1205 for wave (4). The first key is hold 1200 and ultimately it must hold 1191.80 in order to make new wave (5) highs in the near term. Here is the updated 15-min chart.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:00am):

8:25am EST: ES Futures dipped down to 1202 (1206 cash). Looking for wave (4)-5-[5] to trade down to 1200/1205 level today. There is a rising wedge look to the ES chart, so maybe just more new high in wave (5) just above 1214. All technical indicators on the daily time frame are wildly over-bought and will need to be reset soon. You can also see a potential head and shoulders (as SH_Jack has pointed out) as well. The target of the H&S is about ES 1194 (1198) cash markets.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (7:43am):

Apr 15th, 2010: Tax Day

2010-04-15T08:31:00.003-05:00

4:45pm EST: Nothing new and exciting to add to the 11:45am post. Still looks like wave (3) has wrapped up at 1213.92 today or alternately there is a small wave iv-(3) triangle forming that could push wave v-(3) to 1220. Either way, I'm still looking for wave (4) to pull-back to the 1200 to 1205 area before wave (5) runs up towards 1225 to 1235 next week.

SP-5000 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:45am EST: The alternate count with the ending diagonal died on the vine today with crossing of 1212.90. The primary count is the only one left standing and appears correct. That's why I call it the primary count. :-) For those watching at home, my primary count is always the preferred highest probability count. But as people who have followed me for awhile know, the engineer in me wants to show other moderately probable counts as alternates.

I have simplied the count into wave (3)-5-[5] having ended here at 1213.92 or with a possible stretch to between 1215 to 1220. Then I'm looking for wave (4)-5-[5] to retrace about 38% to 1200 to 1205. Holding 1200 is key support for the wave (5) advance. And a wave (4) break below the wave (1) high of 1191.80 would end this move up off the wave 4-[5] low of 1166. I have wave (5)-5-[5] targeting the 1225 to 1235 area. 1235 is where wave5 = wave1 for the move from the Feb 5th low of 1045. I've been saying for a while now that I have wave 5-[5]-P1 ending at about 1230 on around April 21st/22nd.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):

9:25am EST: ES Futures dipped to 1201.3 (1205.3 cash equivalent) overnight. I have the primary count as wave 4-iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 beginning today. Looking for 5-iii-(3) to reach the 1215 area. The alternate ending diagonal for wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 is still in play until 1212.90 is take out. On the moderate sized downside move watch to see if 1200 holds.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-mic Chart (8:31am):

Apr 14th, 2010: Up Up and Away

2010-04-14T07:36:00.004-05:00

4:35pm EST: SP-500 and DOW-30 were up 1%, Russel-2000 up 2% and Financials up 2.5%. Yep that what a iii-(3) impulse wave can do. With a close at 1210.65 and the nature of the impulse up off 1188.82, I would say there is very little doubt now that this is the wave iii-(3) of the primary count. Obviously breaking above 1212.90 would completely eliminate the Ending Diagonal scenario. And as we look for the top of wave iii-(3) and watch a wave iv-(3) pull-back, we now have a level that wave iv-(3) can not violate as wave i-(3) endned at 1199.20. I think wave iii-(3) has a chance to hit about 1215, and iv-(4) could pull-back about 10 points (38%) to 1205, before v-(3) targets 1222. And wave (4) should pull back to about 1205 again and final wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 would end around 1235. The road map ahead is laid out on my EOD 15-min chart. I will remove the ED as soon as 1212.90 is taken out.

Also, if you look at the 60-min chart you can see that the wave off the Feb 5th low of 1045 has now entered the targeted termination zone of between 1206 (W5=0.62W1) and 1275 (W5=1.62W1). I prefer the W5=W1 point of 1235 for the final resting spot of this very impressive wave 5-[5]-P1.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD:)

2:55pm EST: If you look at the alternate count of the ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1 strictly from the ES Futures perspective, then we have not yet hit the upper channel line. In fact the upper channel touch would be about 4 more points higher from here or ES 1208 = SPX 1212. And the the ED maximum is at 1212.90 SPX. Maybe one more push up at the end of today could to do it?

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (2:34pm):

2:00pm EST: Very strong move up to 1207.57 today. For the move up off the Feb 5th low of 1045, W5=0.62W1 at 1206. Possible over-thrown on the alternate count ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1. There will have to be a close back under 1204 of the upper trendline to keep this count going in my opinion. The primary count with this being wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 is in good shape. Looking for wave (3)-5-[5]-P1 to complete between 1215 and 1122, and wave (5)-5-[5]-P1 to complete between 1222 and 1135. Also closes above 1200 level now with keep the bullish primary count going.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:45pm):

8:35am EST: ES Futures have hit 1198.50 (1202.50) on the back of Intel and JP Morgan earnings beats. We are set to gap up over 1200 resistance. Now we must determine if the primary count iii-(3)-5-[5] or the ending diagonal alternate count (5)-5-[5] is correct. The ED count is capped to about 1204 today by the upper trend line and capped at a maximum of 1212.90. So if we break decisvely over the upper trend line and maintain the run upward, then the primary count is likely correct. If we struggle with the ED upper trendline or pop over and then retreat quick, then the ED is still a possibility.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:15am EST):

Apr 13th, 2010: More Dip Buyers Come In

2010-04-13T09:13:00.006-05:00

4:50pm EST: I'm offering the balance of April for $15 if you want to join the PUG Alert Newsletter Service. Email me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to sign up.

4:10pm EST: Wow, just where do all these dip buyers come from? The 1188.82 low today, fits well with a wave ii-(3)-5-[5]-P1 primary count. It was almost a 50% retrace of wave i-(3). So the bounce today could be the start of wave iii-(3) which has a target near 1215 and wave v-(3) should end around 1222. We'll need to see a gap open over the 1200 resistance and follow-through tomorrow if this count is correct. I still have the 1235 area as my final target for then end of 5-[5]-P1 of the primary count.

As an alternate (purple), we'll need to keep a close watch on the ending diagonal for wave 5-[5]-P1. So far we've completed waves (1)-(4) of this count and should be working on wave (5), see the 15-min chart from 11:50am. The ED count is interesting in that it has maximum of 1212.9 and a Wave5=0.62Wave1 target at 1206. Remmber that ED's like to have some over-throw in wave (5), so it may look like the wave iii-(3) of the primary count until we get a hard reversal.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:10pm EST: Here's a quick bonus look at my most recent 15-min chart. The ending diagonal count (in purple) for wave 5-[5]-P1 is growing on me. According to one analyst I heard this morning, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart of the SP-500 has been above 66 (over bought) for more consecutive days than for any time going back to 1196! I was just talking about this yesterday on my blog post, but was only looking back to the 2007 peak. This daily RSI is just begging for a correction back to at least the mid-point of 50, so a 30 to 50 point correction should be near. Maybe just one more push up to 1206/10 in the ending diagonal count will be it.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:50am EST):

10:10am EST: ES Futures traded down to 1188(1192) overnight. Looks like a simple a-b-c off the top in the ES Futures, so that looks like wave ii-(3)-5-[5] and up we go again in wave iii-(3). I would be watching the 1190/92 are in the cash market early this morning. If we hold there at the lower light blue trend line support, then it's bullish. Also, there is another possible ending diagonal pattern I have labeled on the ES Futures chart that would complete wave (4)-5-[5] at 1192 cash and then up to about 1206 to 1210 cash.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:30am):

Apr 12th, 2010: Next Intermediate Top is Near

2010-04-12T07:03:00.008-05:00

5:25pm EST: Following-up on the 3:45pm post, I have added a new alternate count (in red) that has the 1199 high today at the end of wave 3-[5] and there should be a 38% retrace for wave 4-[5] down to 1156. This would relieve the overbought conditions on the daily chart and set the stage for a charge towards 1257 in May and June. The interesting thing about this new count, is that the SP-500 would stay below my middle channel line off the March 09 low of 666. So far during the rise up from the Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045, the SP-500 has been respecting this middle channel line. This new count is my 2nd most likely count, with my primary count (in white) remaining that the SP-500 continues to push towards 1235 in wave (3)-5-[5] that should complete before the end of April. There is a 2nd alternate (in purple) that shows an ending diagonal pattern with (5)-5-[5]-P1 complete today at 1199.20. This count is ruled out if the level of 1201.03 is broken.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

3:45pm EST: Take a look at this daily SP-500 chart for the past 3-years and tell me if you think it's a good idea to be buying into the SP-500 at this 1200 level or it's better to wait for next nice size (50 to 70 point) pull-back to buy in again? 1200 is the July 08 low and it sure looks like we should see a pull-back form this area, just like the 100 point pull-back we got from the 1130/50 (Sept 08 low) area on January 19th, 2010. The price today at 1199 is nearly 70 points above the 50-day SMA at 1131; the largest it's been during the run up off the March 09 low of 666. Also, the sizable pull-backs have been happening about every 3 months, so one is due soon. The RSI on the daily time frame is the most protracted overbought condition since the Aug-Oct 07 1575 peak !!! It's time for a reset of the oscillators. Keep your stops tight on any profitable long positions. 1260 (March 08 low) looks like the next higher target after any sizable pull-back. So maybe this run from 1086 to 1199 was wave 3-[5] and we get the 4-[5] down to about 1130/50, before 5-[5] takes the SP-500 to the final P1 target of 1260 in May/June. Just another alternative to keep in mind.

SP-500 Daily Candle Stick Chart (Last 3-years):

8:00am EST: ES Futues have pulled back inside the upper channel line. The key area to watch today in the cash market is 1192. A break below 1192 could mean that wave i-(3) ended on Friday at 1195 and a 50% to 62% (1181 to 1185) wave ii-(3) is underway. Staying over 1192, would mean that wave iii-(3) is likely underway.

SP-500 ES Future 60-min Chart (7:22am):

Apr 11th, 2010: Futures Bullish Early

2010-04-11T17:28:00.003-05:00

6:05pm EST: SP-500 ES Futures are up big early this evening. So far they have tagged 1199 (1203 cash equiv.) and have broken above the upper trendline and over the 1200 resistance. That would mean my primary count (see Friday's EOD 15-min chart), that has us in wave iii-(3)-5-[5]-P1, is correct. The first target area is 1209 for wave iii-(3), which is the Inverse Head and Shoulders target. The alternate count (purple) of iii-(5)-5-[5]-P1 is still possible if there is some over-throw on the ending diagonal pattern. I would expect a maximum of 1206 for this pattern, where wave5-[5]=wave1-[5].

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (6:05pm EST):

Apr 9th, 2010: Another Push Up

2010-04-09T07:39:00.009-05:00

11:55pm EST: Taking another look at things tonight; the SP-500 ES Futures traded up to 1193 (1197 cash equiv) after hours. This is right up against the upper yellow trend line. Looking again at the ES Futures chart, it's possible that this entire move up from 1171(1175) to 1193(1197) was wave i-(3)-5-[5] of the primary count and we will get a wave ii-(3) pull-back of 10 to 12 points to 1181/83 (1185/87) on Monday. This move could also be the a-(5)-5-[5] of the ending diagonal alt count (purple), with a b-leg down and c-wave up yet do come. Another thing favoring a wave ii-(3) pull-back before iii-(3) begins is the RSI is over 70 on the daily chart with negative devergence to price peaks. A wave ii-(3) pull-back of 10 to 12 points would help relieve this.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (EOD):

4:45pm EST: Bulls buying the dips...same as it ever was. :-) So, another new recovery high of 1194.66 was hit. Looks like the wave ii-(3)-5-[5] was very shallow and wave iii-(3) is underway off the 1188 level. I have the initial target for iii-(3) at the inverse head and shoulders target of 1209 with the final target near 1235 (W5=W1) for wave (5)-5-[5]. The 1192 neckline was broken near the close, which is a bullish sign. I'm very close to eliminating the alternate (purple) count of the wave (5)-5-[5] ending diagonal at 1200/06 area (W5=0.62W1). Let's see how early next week plays out first.

Finally it's baseball time in Chicagoland. In my spare time between my full-time engineering managment job, running this stock market analysis blog/services, I find time to manage my son's 14U boys traveling team call the Blaze. We have our home opener on Sunday. Wish us luck. I love baseball, as I played it through 18U and have been managing travel baseball teams for the past decade. Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

11:05am EST: Here's an updated look at the 15-min chart that subcribers to see updated 2 to 5 times daily. I'm looking for a wave ii-(3) retrace of 50% (1184) to 62% (1181) of the wave i-(3) move up from 1175 to 1192. Then wave iii-(3) should target the 1209 area, which is the measured move of the inverse head and shoulders pattern shown in green. Neckline is at 1192, so when the SP-500 break back through 1192 the move to 1200+ should be underway.

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:00am):

8:35am EST: ES Futures have hit 1187 (1191 cash) and it looks like another push higher today in wave i-(3)-5-[5] before the wave ii-(3) pull-back. Recall from the 60-min chart, the primary count has wave (3)-5-[5] reaching a target near 1220 and wave (5)-5-[5] to reach 1235 (were wave5=wave1). Altenately (purple), wave (5)-5-[5] of the ending diagonal could play out very quickly to the 1200 to 1206 target (wave5=0.62wave1) P1 intermediate top.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:30am):

Apr 8th, 2010: Testing Support

2010-04-08T09:55:00.003-05:00

5:05pm EST: The SP-500 continues to pass the test and remains bullish. Today's move up to 1188.55 looks like wave i-(3)-5-[5] of my primary count. I'm expecting a pull-back to the 1181/83 area for wave ii-(3). There is a small inverse head and shoulders setting up off the today's 1175 low that projects to about 1205 in the next few trading days. Attached at the bigger picture 60-min and Daily charts. We are right back inside the primary bull E-wave channel off the 1045 Feb 5th low.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:50pm EST: Those on my PUG Alert Service Subscribers knew from early this morning to watch for a bounce off 1175 and back test of the broken channel (light blue) at 1184. A nice profitable 9 point trade (0.75% or 2.30% profit if you use 3X EFTs UPRO and SPXU). And if either of my bullish counts play-out their profits are not capped at the 9 point gain, they could be good for a 25 point (2.1%/6.3%) to 55 point (4.7%/14.0%) profit. Below are the 15-min charts that my subscribers saw today. If you want to sign-up for the alert service and make some profits, e-mail me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com.

SP-500 15-Min Chart (12:40pm):

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:35am):

10:45am EST: The SP-500 tested support at 1175.12 this morning. Both of the near term bullish options are still valid as long as this 1175 area holds up. The 13-day EMA is at 1174 today, which has held as support during this entire rally. Primary count is wave (3)-5-[5] underway with final targets near 1230 and alternate count is wave (5)-5-[5] underway with final target near 1200 . I do have a new near bearish count that has 1192 as the peak of wave 3-[5], and therefor I was off by one minor degree to early in my labeling. In this case we could be starting wave 4-[5] to retrace between 23% (1167) and 38% (1152) of the large wave 3-[5] move from 1086 to 1192.

SP-500 60-min Chart (10:30am):

Apr 7th, 2010: Channeling

2010-04-07T07:40:00.002-05:00

4:00pm: Bounced right of the 1177 pivot (now support). This is bullish behavoir. Looks like the 1177 was a 62% retrace for wave (2)-5-[5]. Wave (3)-5-[5] could be underway with targets up near 1230 area. Alternatively, we could have put in wave (4)-5-[5] at 1177 of an ending diagonal with a wave (5)-5-[5] targeting the 1200 to 1206 area next week.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:15am: What a beautiful E-wave structure and channel on the 60-min chart. Just how high will this wave 5-[5]-P1 reach?

SP-500 60-min Chart (11:15am):

8:35am: ES futures have dipped to 1180 (1184 cash). As shown in the 15-min chart the key levels to watch on the the wave 4 or (4) pull-back are 1181 and 1177. Need to hold 1177 to have a shot at 1200 in the near term.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD, 4-6-10):

SP-500 ES Futures (8:20am):

Apr 6th: The Grind

2010-04-06T09:51:00.002-05:00

11:40pm EST: The grind upward continues with new higher highs ever day or two. As a bonus tonight for the non-paying followers, I'm going to put up my 15-min chart on the SP-500. The primary count has us in wave 3 of (1)-5-[5]; this wave may have completed at 1191.80 today. I'm looking a shallow wave 4, possibily a triangle to last the next couple days before reach the wave (1)-5-[5] reaches a target of about 1200 early next week. The alternate count in purple has an ending diagonal (wedge) playing out that has completed wave (3)-5-[5] today at 1191.80. Looking for wave (4) to re-trace back to the 1177 to 1180 area, before reaching 1200 area mid to late next week.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

10:45am EST: SP-500 held key support above 1181.43 this morning, setting the stage for a new high above 1188. However, if you look at my mid-channel line on the 60-min chart, there is some resistance here around 1187. I don't favor it right now, but there is a chance this wave 5-[5] could terminate as an ending diagonal (wedge) before reaching the first target of 1200.

SP-500 60-min Chart (10:30am):

Apr 5th, 2010: Reaction Day

2010-04-05T07:24:00.004-05:00

5:35pm EST: Nice positive, bullish recaction to the good Feb jobs number. SP-500 set a new recovery high of 1187.73 and closed at 1187.44. Daily chart has erased the negative divergence on the RSI and the MACD histogram bars are positive and rising showing a bullish confirmation of the price action. Looking for a continued rise out of the wave 4-[5] triangle toward the triangle target 1200 to 1206 level. The key now is to determine if wave 5-[5] will end at the 1206 area (where wave5=0.62*wave1) or if it continues toward the 1233 area (where wave5=wave1). And there is an outside chance of a wave 5-[5] extension to 1275 (where wave5=1.62*wave1). The middle target of 1230 remains the primary target for now.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles Chart (EOD):

12:55pm EST: On the 60-min chart SP-500 seems to be struggling at 1187, whish is near the mid-channel line that goes all the back to the March 2009 lows. I have a couple targets for this wave 5-[5], one is at 1206 where wave5=0.62*wave1. This 1200 area is also the wave 4-[5] triangle target. And the other is 1235 where wave5=wave1. I favor the 1235 target at the moment.

SP-500 60-min Chart (12:45pm):

8:20am EST: Today the cash markets get to react to the February US jobs number. The ES Futures hit a new high at 1180.6 (1184.6 cash) and show that the wave 4-[5] triangle break-out is intact.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:10am):

Apr 2nd, 2010: Jobs Growth

2010-04-02T10:02:00.000-05:00

11:00am EST: February jobs number was a +162K, with only +48K from the US Govt, so the private sector added over 100K jobs in Feb. Dec and Jan jobs were revised higher +40K. This is good news for the US economny.

The SP-500 ES Futures jumped to a high of 1178.60 (1182.60 cash equiv) on the news. If you look at the ES Futures 60-min chart below you can see that the break-out of the wave 4-[5] triangle was back-tested a 2nd time overnight and held. I believe that there is a good possibility of a continued rise towards 1200 in the cash markets early next week. This sould be wave (1) of 5-[5].

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (9:13am EST):

Apr 1st, 2010: Trapped? Nope It's Break-out !!!

2010-04-01T07:39:00.002-05:00

6:20pm EST: Break-out, Fake-out and then Break-out again. Wow! The close today at 1178.10 is above the key 1177 pivot. So for my primary count things remain the same. This should set the stage for wave (1)-5-[5] to run up towards 1200 early next week. 1200 is the measured move target for the large symmetric triangle wave 4-[5]. I kept an alternate count (in red) of an A-B-C (3-3-5) flat option for wave 4-[5] that has today's retest of the 1181 peak as the B-leg of the flat. Then today's dip to 1170 and bounce to 1178 wold be a the i-ii of the C-leg down to a target of 1161 (C=). I don't think this alternate count has a high probability of playing out on Monday, unless the Feb jobs number tomorrow is a complete disaster. So let's keep our eyes on the 1200 prize. Happy Easter!

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

9:45am EST: Well, I spoke too soon. Looks like a legit attempt at a triangle break-out this morning. The Keep 1177 pivot resistance was crossed and a slightly new higher high or 1180.97 was hit (vs 1180.68). Now the key will be to see if a back test of the 1177 resistance has now turned to support, meaning the break-out is going to hold. Recall that the wave 4-[5] triangle measures 28 points, so the target is 1172+28=1200 on the SP-500.

SP-500 ES Futrues 60-min (9:45am):

8:40am EST: ES Futures over night still trapped in the large triangle but with an upward bias. We need to break 1177 pivot to confirm a move to new highs.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:40am):

Mar 31st, 2010: Will March End as a Lamb (Bear) or Lion (Bull)?

2010-03-30T23:53:00.008-05:00

5:10pm EST: However the primary count remains that the large wave 4-[5] triangle is still in play. There is always a possibility of a little more of a down side fake-out, maybe to the blue channel line at about 1164/65, before the continuation higher.

4:20pm EST: So the answer is that March ended like a Lamb (Bear). And since it came in like a Lion (Bull), it confirms that the Markets are indeed just like the weather, ever changing. :-)

There was a break below the lower yellow triangle boundary in the last hour of trading. This could be a fake-out. However, I do think the alternate near term bearish count (in red on 15-min chart) of the 3-3-5 flat for wave 4-[5] gained some momentum today. Also, there is chart pattern from the aggreesive July to August 2009 bull run-up that is very similar to the last few days, and a gap down with a 20 point down day followed. I do think that is a reasonably good possibility for tomorrow, with the wave 4-[5] flat option targets sitting at 1159 and then 1147. That type of back-to-back down days would help reset the RSI (now at 66) back near 50 and allow room for the wave 5-[5] run-up to begin.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

11:30am EST: This further consolidation between 1166 and 1175 is just what is needed to set the stage for next run higher. See the daily candle stick chart. The RSI is down to 67 and it would be good to get to down to about 60 to 63 before the wave 5-[5] charge to new highs. This consolidation around the long term 1168 and 1177 pivots is a mini-version of the Dec 2009 consolidation pattern.

SP-500 Daily Candles (11:30am):

10:25am EST: The lower yellow triangle line at 1166 held support very well early this morning. The primary count that we are in a wave 4-[5] triangle is still in play until 1161.48 is breached. Here is the updated 15-min chart with this mornings price action. I would expect some some more consolidation in the 1166 to 1175 band before a break out over the 1175/77 area can occur. The SP-500 many stay in this band the rest of this week. Any breach of 1161.48 would be near term bearish and mean the wave 4-[5] flat option is in play.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:25am EST):

12:30am EST: On March 1st the market came in like a Lion (Bull) and the SP-500 gained 11 points to rise from 1105 to close at 1116. This was a key day for the SP-500, as it closed over the 1112 resistance point and never closed back below 1116 for the rest of the month (see chart below). Yesterday, March 30th, the SP-500 closed at 1173 (up 68 points or 6.1%). Quite an impressive Bull Run during March. And this followed on the heels of the 1045 to 1105 (up 60 points or 5.7%) bull run in February.

So what is in store for the final trading day of March? Will the Lambs (Bears) have their way or will the Lambs be led to the slaughter yet again? It really is a basically a toss-up and could break either way tomorrow. I have a new 15-min chart below that shows a near term bullish, a near term bearish, and a near term nuetral count. The near-term nuetral count is my primary count that has the E-leg of large wave [4]-5 triangle playing out over the next day or two in the 1166 to 1175 range. And then eventually breaking out to new highs on a push towards 1230 for wave 5-[5]. The ultra-bullish near term count shows an immediate move higher tomorrow towards 1190/1200 in the 3rd wave of (5)-3-[5]. And finally there is a near term bearish count that has a 3-3-5 flat for wave 4-[5] playing out off the 1180.69 high. This count was the 5-wave C-leg down underway with targets at 1159 and 1147. The ADP jobs report before the market opens should set the tone for the near term direction.

I really don't like to hedge and show all there options, but this is one of those times where the market is sending us mixed signals near term. Intermediate term, I'm still calling for a wave 5-[5]-P1 to at least 1230, so even if a pull-back to 1147 happens, it will just be another buying opportunity to add to long positions.

SP-500 15-min Chart (3-30-10 EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles March 2010:

Mar 30th, 2010: Final Bit of Consolidation

2010-03-30T11:08:00.002-05:00

4:45pm EST: We are getting closer to the end of wave 4-[5] triangle. It could be done at today's low of 1169, or maybe just one more slight drop to 1166/68 for the E-leg complete, then out and up for wave (1)-5-[5]. Wave (1) should target the 1200 area once crossing the 1177 pivot. The large wave 4-[5] triangle measures 28 points and has a center line at 1172, the the 1200 target for the trust out of the triangle. Notice how well the wave 4-[5] triangle alternates with the wave 2-[5] zig-zag on the 60-min chart. Ultimate target for wave 5-[5]-P1 is about 1230 (1235 if 5=1).

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

12:00pm EST: Looks like the large triangle has completed the D-leg at 1178 today and now the pull-back for the E-leg is the final bit of consolidation required before a trust to new highs above 1180. The 1177 pivot resistance has been difficult to break through. Also, I have thrown up some alternate counts on the 15-min chart in purple and light blue. The light blue count is interesting as it implies that the SP-500 is still within wave (5)-3-[5] with a quite a bit of more upside to the 3-[5] yet to come.

SP-500 15-min Chart (12:00pm):

Mar 29, 2010: Dr Copper Breaking Out

2010-03-28T23:44:00.006-05:00

4:25pm EST: Nothing much has changed. Still looks like wave 4-[5] consolidation inside the large triangle around the long term 1168 to 1177 pivot resistance points. D-leg up may be completed with small E-leg down to come. The gap area betwee 1166 and 1168 left at this mornings open, may be the target to close for the E-leg before wave 5-[5] heads to new highs.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

12:40pm EST: Wave 5-[5] may have begun from the 1161.48 low on Friday or we are in the final D-E leg's to finish up the large symmetric triangle for wave 4-[5].

12:40am EST: Looks like Dr Copper is breaking out of it's consolidation range and of late Friday and continuing tonight. Copper entered it's consolidaton period about a week before the SP-500. Copper is typically a leader of the markets, so if it starts to break-out then the major markets should follow.

Copper Futures 60-min Chart (12:30am):

Mar 26th, 2010: Back-test Day

2010-03-26T07:51:00.004-05:00

5:30pm EST: Waves looks corrective, as part of wave [4]-5. It could take most of next week to resolve inside the large triangle around the 1168 pivot or it could resolve quickly with a burst lower to about 1154 on Monday to complete the flat (alt: purple). Have a nice weekend.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

2:00 pm EST: So how do you like them apples (waves). 3-waves down off the 1180 high are completed at 1162, as predicted. Could be the end of the C-leg of the large triangle for wave 4-[5]. Now, we need to watch for whether or not a 4th wave develops and we get a 5th wave down towards 1154 for the flat of the alternate count (purple).

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:45pm):

10:00am EST: Here's the 15-min chart, maybe a H&S with RS forming for the b-leg of C in the 1174/75 area.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:00am):

8:50am EST: There will likely be some back-testing of the broken channel line this morning. ES Futures indicate that this has already begun. I'm looking for 3-wave C-leg of the the large wave 4-[5] triangle to complete around 1160/62 today. If that level is breached, then the alternate count for the 5-wave C-leg of the flat is underway with targets from 1144 to 1154.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (8:45am):

Mar 25th, 2010: Poised for a New High

2010-03-25T07:59:00.007-05:00

5:30pm EST: As mentioned in my mid-day update at 1:35pm (see below) and when the SP-500 was right near today's peak of 1180, I had feeling that the 1177 pivot was not going to fall so easily. Sure enough the market's reversed hard this afternoon and the SP-500 closed back below both the 1177 and 1168 pivots. Wave 3-[5] is clearly over. Wave 4-[5] should either carve out the large 3-3-3-3-3 triangle shown on the 15-min chart or some type of 3-3-5 irregular flat, so as to alternate with the Wave 2-[4] 5-3-5 Zig-Zag. Targets for the Wave 4-[5] range from 1144 (38% retrace) to 1154 (23% retrace). For the primary count of the large symmetric triangle the wave 4-[5] low of 1153 (23% retrace) was already hit in wave A on Monday morning. However, if we carve out the irregular flat then the 1144 target could be hit in the 5-wave C-leg that begun today off the 1180 high.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

4:30pm EST: As a follow-up to yesterday's divergences pointed out on the SP-500 Daily Candle Stick chart, here's is an update for today. The divergences between price moving higher and the falling RSI and MACD histogram seemes to be starting to play out with the price now reversing hard late this afternoon. And we now have a bear cross on the Full STO and a potential bear cross coming on the MACD signal line. Finally, today's high at 1180 and then hard reversal left a potential shooting star daily candle stick that will need to be confirmed tomorrow with another red candle.

SP-500 Daily Candle Stick Chart (EOD):

1:35pm EST: Updated 15-min chart. My primary thinking is still the large wave 4-[5] triangle with the SP-500 hanging around the 1168 to 1177 long term pivots for a several more days before wave 5-[5] towards 1230 is initiated.

SP-500 15-min Chart (1:35pm):

8:55pm EST: The alternate count in purple where the wave 3-[5] extends to the (5)=(1) point of 1189 is in play this morning. There is nice parallel up channel for this wave on the ES Futures chart below. Let's see if the SP-500 can decisively break the 1177 pivot or if it is rejected at this resistance and we could form an ascending triangle with a flat top near 1175 for wave 4-[5]. Last night I showed the sysmmetric contracting triangle wave 4-[5] but it could also be this ascending flat top triangle.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:30am):

Mar 24th, 2010: Watching 1177 Resistance

2010-03-24T10:03:00.004-05:00

10:15pm EST: Another possibily is that wave 3-[5] ended at 1170 last Wed (3/17), and the SP-500 has been in a large A-B-C-D-E triangle for wave 4-[5]. Each leg of the triangle must be a 3-wave move and so far these waves since the 1170 peak do look like 3-wave moves. Looking at the orange labels on the 15-min chart, we have the A-leg down to 1153, B-leg up to 1175, and now the C-leg down to about 1156 area. The 13-day EMA is currently at 1155, so that area could stop the next decline. And as I have said multiple times, wave 4-[5] should alternate in form with wave 2-[5], which was a clear cut A-B-C Zig-Zig. The triangle wave 4-[5] would do just the trick. The triangle E leg should end around 1160 some time on Tues (3/30) or Wed (3/31). This will allow the SP-500 to move side-ways over to the yellow channel before begin wave 5-[5] up towards 1230.

15-min Chart with Triangle Wave 4-[5] (10:15pm):

6:35pm EST: The close slightly below the 1168 pivot is bearish heading into tomorrow. I'll be watching for a cross below the lower purple channel near 1164 area early tomorrow to confirm that 1174.72 is the top of wave 3-[5]. However, a postive move up in the morning cound signal wave 3-[5] is not finished just yet. The wave (5)=(1) target of 1189 is still up there.

I'm looking for wave 4-[5] reach the 1154 (23%) or 1141 (38%) retrace area.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

12:15pm EST: Looking at the SP-500 Daily Candle Stick chart with RSI, MACD and PPO, there are some divergences that are starting to show up. And it looks similar to the mid-August 2009 area of the chart after the strong bounce off 869. So, we should expect a pull-back in wave 4-[5] toward the 34-day EMA (currently at 1134) that will be in the 1140 to 1150 area next week.

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (12:15pm):

11:00am EST: Yesterday the SP-500 broke through the key 1168 pivot resistance from Oct 2005. Today we need be watching close the 1177 pivot resistance point from 2002. I've been saying for a while now that I thought his wave up off the 1086 low would die in this 1168 to 1177 resistance band. And this 1168 to 1177 area also cooresponds to the measured move predicted by the inverse head and shoulders off the 1045 low. I'm looking for wave 4-[5] to begin from inside this resistance band. And I believe 4-[5] will be a triangle wave to alternate with the wave 2-[5] single zig-zag. I expect the 4-[5] triangle to play out in the 1141 to 1177 area over the next week or two. This triangle should provide the consolidation needed to push towards the 1230 level in a wave 5-[5] to follow into mid to late April.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:30am):

Mar 23rd, 2010: Watching the 1168 Resistance

2010-03-23T08:57:00.005-05:00

5:30pm EST: OK, the market voted and decided we are still in wave (5)-3-[5]. This becomes the primary and only count. So what are some possible targets for wave (5)-3-[5] to end: 1176 (5)=0.62(1), 1189 (5)=(1), and 1212 (5)=1.62(1). Note, there is another long term (2002) resistance pivot at 1177 and my Inverse Head & Shoulder Target of 1175 that aligns with the first target and may be where this wave 3-[5] finally ends. But also, don't be surprised if after a fews tests of 1177, the SP-500 attempts to push through. Let's see how tomorrow plays out at the 1176 target before considering the 1189 target.

Once we get to the end of wave 3-[5], I suspect wave 4-[5] will be some type of triangle so that it will alternate with the wave 2-[5] simple zig-zag. I also think wave 4-[5] will stay above 1150.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

12:15pm EST: I have decided that the evidence is such that the SP-500 is/was in wave 3-[5]-P1 and not 1-[5]-P1, as was previously my primary count. The fact that the RSI has held above 70 for nearly a week is strong evidence of a 3rd wave. The only decision now is whether wave (5)-3-[5] topped at 1169.84 last Wed (primary) or if there is is still a wave (5)-3-[5] yet to come (alternate). If (5)-3-[5] has topped, then we are currently in wave 4-[5] in which case it could become an triangle between 1150 and 1170. This would make some sense it would alternate with the wave 2-[5], which was clearly a simple ABC Zig-Zag from 1112 to 1086. Wave 1-[5] was 67 points, so adding 67 to wave 4-[5] likely breakout around of 1160, we get a wave 5-[5] target of 1227. Here are my updated 15 and 60-min charts.

15-min Chart (10:45am):

60-min Chart (10:45am):

9:40am EST: ES Futures were basically flat again overnight. Lately the there has not been much movement in he futures, which is a significant departure from the normal. The resitance pivot point of 1168 from Oct 2005 is still holding the SP-500 back. I have shown my alternate count on the ES Futures chart below. The 1168 pivot is going to need to be taken out decisively to move this market higher. Notice there have already be 3 hits on this 1168 level that have be rejected. If the SP-500 continues to struggle with this 1168 level is possible a wave (4) triangle will form between 1150 and 1170. This will allow momentum to build, for the wave (5) push higher.

SP-500 ES Futures (8:30am):

Mar 22nd, 2010: A Bullish Monday, Again

2010-03-22T09:44:00.004-05:00

5:05pm EST: Another bullish Monday, after an overnight bear trap was set. The SP-500 closed at 1165.81 and is set-up to challenge for a new 2010 high this week. The only question now is how long does it spend in this 1150 to 1170 zone before moving higher. The primary count is still the abc-x-abc double ZZ corrective with the flat as the alternate. The primary count needs a final c-leg down to about 1152 to complete. The alternate count has begun the wave i-(5) march to new hight. Also, it's possible a triangle will form in this 1150/70 zone before moving higher.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart: (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

1:30pm EST: SP-500 is fighting is way back inside the agressive bull channel. I'm very close to declaring that we are in wave 3-[5]-P1 and not 1-[5]-P1 as originally tought. Thus, my alternate count (purple) would be come the primary count. And the targets for (5)-3-[5] would be 1189 {(5)=(1)} or 1213 {(5)=1.62(1)}. See the mid-day 60-min chart.

SP-500 60-min (1:30pm):

10:30am EST: After a brief dip to 1152.88, the SP-500 has re-gained it's footing and moved higher. But the primary count and alternate count laid out at the end of day on Friday are still in play (review the 5 and 15-min charts from EOD Friday).

Looking at the Daily candle stick chart with the 13-day and 34-day EMA's, it's clear just how much strength and support this bull run now has. The 13-day EMA has moved all the way up to the 1149 area and the 34-day EMA up to the 1129 area. Both of these levels will provide support to back-stop any bear attack.

If you want to try out the PUG Alert Newsletter with multiple daily e-mail alerts, I'm offering the balance or March for just $10. Drop me an e-mail at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to sign-up. And for all of you that visit here each day (it's up to over 1500 unique visitors per day) please click the "follow" button the right-hand side of the blog. I would really appreciate it. I will continue to post as much daily information for free as possible. Thanks!

SP-500 Daily Candles (10:30am):

Mar 21st: Purdue to the Sweet 16 !

2010-03-21T20:13:00.005-05:00

9:10pm EST: Wow...just...Wow! Purdue takes down Texas A&M 63-61 in OT to move onto the Sweet 16! Chris Kramer hits a driving lay-up with 4.2 seconds to win the game! It's Kramerica Baby...the of rest of us just live here. Boiler Up!

Mar 20th, 2010: Balance of 2010 Overview

2010-03-20T19:10:00.001-05:00

7:45pm EST: Looking at the 60-min and Daily charts there are a couple options for how the SP-500 will reach the 1230 to 1260 level over the next couple months. On Friday the SP-500 fell out of the bullish Elliott channel that it had been in since the 1086 low. I've added a new regression channel in yellow on the 60-min chart. I expect this next pull-back to very mild whether it's wave 2-[5]-P1 (primary count) or 4-[5]-P1 (alternate count). The result of the pull-back in late March will be the push towards the 1230 level by late April. From there the alternate count tops out at 1230, while the primary count powers onto 1260 by late May to early June.

After the secular bull market Primary Wave 1 (P1) tops around 1230 to 1260 in the early summer, I'm looking for a P2 to retrace back to 1123 (23%) to 1034 (38%) by the Oct/Nov time frame.

SP-500 60-min Chart (3-19-10):

SP-500 Daily Chart (3-19-10):

Mar 19th, 2010: Interesting OPEX Day

2010-03-19T17:48:00.003-05:00

6:45pm EST: First off congrats to my Purdue University Boilermakers in winning their opening round game vs Siena in the NCAA Tournament today.

Now that the channel from the 1086 low has been broken, I have the primary count that we are in an abc-x-abc double ZZ for wave 2-[5] down to about 1141. As an alternate, we must keep open the option that this a simple abc 3-3-5 flat off the 1169.84 top for wave 4-v-(5) of 1-[5]. Notice the SP-500 bounced right at my calculated value for flat low of 1155. Hmmm....Maybe a new high near 1178 early next week? Watch for a back-test of the broken channel around 1164 early Monday in the b-leg of the 2nd ZZ. If it breaks back inside the channel the alternate count could be in play.

Have a great weekend!

5-min Chart (EOD):

15-min Chart (EOD):

Mar 18th, 2010: One More Wave Up?

2010-03-18T07:36:00.007-05:00

4:50pm EST: Slow day. Not much was resolved as to whether or not the SP-500 is completing wave 4-iv-(5) of 1-[5] and needs one more wave 5-v-(5) up to about 1175/78 or if the this wave 1-[5] topped at 1169.84 on Wed and wave 2-[5] down is underway which could re-trace to about 1145 (23%) or 1125 (38%). Hopefully, Friday's action will help to resolve the near term direction.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

10:45am EST: Here’s my PUG Alert Newsletter Service e-mail update as of 10:30am EST. This is small taste of the type of info and charts the PUG Alert subcribers get each day. This along with my proven track record of keeping you on the correct side of the trade. To sign up for $15 for the balance of March (regular $25/month) e-mail me a pu_gridiron@yahoo.com.

"Looks like a potential small symmetric wave 4-v-(5) triangle, which would mean a very slow day. The size of the triangle is about 9 points and the pivot is around 1066, so a break-out upwards would traget the 1075 area. Any move over 1169.84 would be enough to becalled wave 5-v-(5). There is that tough long-term resistance at 1168 and then 1177. Like I have said, this first move up off the Feb 5th 1045 low should die in this resistance band. This 1175 area is almost the precise measure of the Inverse Head and Shoulders that set-up after the right should formed at 1086. So, there are a lot of reasons for a significant pull-back to start from this area. And the pull of SPY OPEX current pain towards 1140 to 1150 should come into play as soon as a new high over 1169.84 is made. They may try to reverse it very quickly. Also, keep in mind that we could count the 1169.82 as a 5-v-(5) completion (see the purple labeling) and we are already on our way back down in the retrace to at least 1141 and more likely 1125 over next week or so. Once 1157 goes there could be mad rush to exit longs positions for a while."

SP-500 5-min Chart (10:30am):

8:30am EST: The charts say there is one more wave up needed in wave 5-v-(5)-1-[5]-P1. This wave 5-v should bring the SP-500 to about 1178 if ave v=i for wave (5). But the key level to hold for wave 4-v is 1157 (1-v peak), if this final 5-v wave up is going to materialize.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (EOD):

Mar 17, 2010: Happy St. Bull Market Day

2010-03-17T09:49:00.004-05:00

5:40pm EST: Here's an updated look at the SP-500 week with key long term resistance and support. Geting through 1168 and 1177 would open the door to 1200.

SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD):

5:25pm EST: I think there maybe at least one more push up to the v=i target of 1178 before Friday's OPEX. I'm still calling this wave 1-[5]-P1 for the primary count, but I have added an alternate count (purple) that has the SP-500 in wave 3-[5]-P1. Let's see how the next extension or correction looks before making the final determination.

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

10:40am EST: SP-500 has now exceeded my 1165+ target for this wave 1-[5] that I set some 3 weeks ago when I recognized what was potentially an explosive move up coming after the 1112 to 1086 retrace. There is solid resistance in the 1168 area from Oct 2005, (shown this past weekend on my SP-500 weeky time from chart). There is additional resistance around 1177 from 2002. I would expect this wave to end here in this resistance band between 1168 and 1177. If it continues through this area without a significant pull-back, then we might already be in 3-[5] and 2-[5] was the 1086 low. I'm going to start considering this option as an alternate count.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:40am):

Mar 16th, 2010: Bulls Charge to New High 1160 !!!

2010-03-16T07:40:00.005-05:00

5:45pm EST: Another bullish day following yesterday's 3rd hammer candle on the rally off the 1045 Feb 5th Wave [4] low. Below are the updated 15-min, 60-min and Daily EOD Charts. For this extended wave (5)-1-[5], the wave v=0.62i target is 1163, but the SP-500 could reach for the v=i target of 1178. However, there is strong long term resistance pivots at 1163 and 1168 from 2004/2005, respectively. It will be a challege to take them out on the first attempt and we may have to wait for wave 3-[5] to reach above 1168. On the downside, we can watch for a breach of 1150 to indicate that wave 2-[5] maybe underway.

15-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

60-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 Chart (EOD):

5:10pm EST: So, how did my 5-min chart prediction from yesterday morning's low at 1141 turn-out for today? You be the judge:

SP-500 5-min Chart (EOD):

11:00am EST: Just imagine how much more $'s you'd have today if you'd have joined the PUG Alert Newsletter Service over the weekend and had access to my 5-min chart (see below) from yesterday morning that predicted a wave 3-v-(5) target of 1156 off the 1141 pivot low. Here's the 5-chart, and my subscribers can atest that the targets where there early yesterday. :-) And just imagine how much money you'd have made following along, as I have correctly called this wave off the 1045 Feb 5th low. :-) Let's see how we more this wave (5) wants to extend.

SP-500 5-min Chart (11:00am):

8:30am EST: ES Futures maintained a tight range 1145/47 (1150/52 cash equiv) overnight. Wave (5)-1-[5] extension has been impressive. Looking for a target of 1156 in early action on follow-thru of wave 3-v-(5)-1-[5]. To the down-side watching the lower channel line and then holding above 1141 support. Below 1141, I think wave 2-[5] maybe underway.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:30 am):

Mar 15th, 2010: Hammer Time Redux

2010-03-15T08:26:00.007-05:00

5:00pm EST: Another key reversal at the 1141 pivot, as the SP-500 formed a bullish hammer candle on the daily chart. I spoke of this key level of 1141 in Friday's update and again this morning pre-market. PUG Alert Service Subcribers received a couple real-time updated 5-min charts, just as the 1141 pivot was tested and the market reversed higher. It's not too late to sign-up for the last half of March (12 of 23 trading days left). I'm offering a reduced $15/month rate for March (regular is $25/month). E-mail me a pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to get started.

Today we have likely began the wave v-(5) extension towards 1165+. I have a couple targets of 1163 for wave v=0.62i and 1178 for wave v=i.

Wtih today's strong close, tomorrow sets up as a potential Turkey Shoot for the poor Bears. If the Bulls get it above 1154 early in the day, the Bears are going to get crushed in a massive short squeeze.

Tomorrow the downside support area to watch is 1145/46 for any early weakness.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD, Hammer Candles):

9:20am EST: ES Futures fell to 1040 (1145 cash) overight and are trading around 1143 (1148 cash) this morning. The SP-500 is still in position above the key level of 1135 (1141 cash) for a possible wave (5) extension.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min Chart (9:00am)

Mar 14th, 2010: Weekly SP-500 Chart

2010-03-14T15:01:00.001-05:00

3:50pm EST: Looking at the SP-500 weekly chart you can see how important holding above 1029 was for the bulls back on Feb 5th, 2010. In March of 2004 the SP-500 hit a recory high of 1163 followed by a low of 1061 in Aug 2004. In this secular bull market rally off the March 2009 low of 666, this initial rally for P1 is running into the same resistance and support points. This week the key level to watch on the upside is 1163/68 (March 2004 resitance). And on the down side key support is in the 1133 area. Staying above 1045 is important for the P1 wave to stay on target to reach 1230 to 1270 early this summer.

Notice, the very impressive "V-bottom" in March 2009.

SP-500 Weekly (3-12-10):

Mar 12, 2010: Break-Out !

2010-03-12T07:57:00.007-06:00

5:08pm EST: OK, so it wasn't an very impressive "break-out". But the the wave vi triangle did produce the proper 13 point trust from 1141 to 1153.41. 1153.41 is obviously a new recovery high for the SP-500. Was that the top of wave (5)-1-[5]-P1 that we have been watching extend for the past week? Maybe, maybe not. The 1141 level is still important to hold for more upside. And I still think the Inverse Head & Shoulders target of 1165+ could still be acheived in this wave. We'll know early next week. Have a great weekend.

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

1:32pm EST: CloudSlicer was asking about my thoughts on GDX (Gold Miners ETF). Here are my counts from March 10th. GDX could be in a wave 2-[5] pull-back already ahead for the SPX 2-[5] pull-back. But it could also be in a ii-3-[5] count on the wave back up to new highs.

GDX 15-min chart (3-10-10):

GDX Daily chart (3-10-10):

10:52am EST: Wave iv triangle break-out to the projected 1154 measurement was was reached [1141 (pivot) + 13 (height) = 1154]. However, this does not necessarily mean this move up for wave v-(5)-1-[5] is over. This initial trust could just be wae 1 of v of (5). The key area to watch today is the triangle pivot of 1141. Above 1141, further advancement higher for this wave (5)-1-[5] is possible. See the updated 15-min chart below.

SP-500 15-min Chart (10:52am):

8:45am EST: As I correctly indentified early in the trading yestereday, there was a wave iv-(5) triangle with a potential to break-out to the upside. The ES Futrues have hit 1152 (1156 cash equiv) and are on the rise. The Inverse Head and Shoulder Target of 1165 to 1175 is in play for next few trading days.

If you look back into my February blog posts you will see that I called this 1165 target back at 1112, well before the drop to 1086, and subsequent rapid rise to the current levels. This is well before anyone else on the other E-wave blogs saw it. In fact those same bearish E-wave blogs were telling their readers to expect a drop to levels of 950 to1000, when the SP-500 was at 1112 in Feb. It's all out there in the blog post archives on their blogs versus mine.

To become PUG Alert Newsletter Service Subscriber for the balance of March I'm offering it at a $15 discount rate (vs $25/month normal). E-mail me at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to sign up.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:45am):

Mar 11th, 2010: Triangle to New 2010 Highs?

2010-03-11T10:10:00.002-06:00

6:20pm EST: A New 2010 Closing High!!! :-) And 1050.24 is just 0.21 below the intra-day Jan high of 1150.45. It looks like the triangle wave iv is resolving to the upside. It could be labeled as either a symmetrical or ascedning triangle (5-min and 15-min chart). It would appear that my original target of 1160+ for wave (5)-1-[5]-P1 maybe hit in the next few trading days.

On my updated 60-min and Daily Charts, I now believe that the wave 2-[5]-P1 pull-back will be expectionally shallow. If things play-out as I suspect, there will be a continued accelleration upward of all equity and commodity markets. My SP-500 target has been rasied to 1230 to 1277 by May/June 2010. A lot of institutional and retail money is going to start pouring into the markets from bond funds as people are going to start chasing this market thinking they are missing out.

SP-500 5-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

11:00am EST: I'm tracking a bullish ascending triangle for wave iv-(5)-1-[5] on my 5-min and 15-min charts. It's possible that we have completed legs a-b-c of the triangle with d-e to come. Each leg of the triangle must count as 3-wave move and so far legs a-b-c have done just that (look at the 5-min chart). The top of the triangle is at 1148, so a break-out upward would certainly pop the short seller stops set at 1150/52 area and help push the SP-500 to the 1160+ level. Also, be watching for any break-down below 1133/35 to confirm wave 1-[5] is over and we are entering a wave 2-[5] retrace.

FYI, I'm showing these 5-min and 15-min charts here this week so potential Alert Service Subscibers can see how useful this information can be for trading. Please drop me an e-mail at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to subscribe. I can offer the balance of March (2 weeks) for a discounted rate of $15 (vs $25/month).

SP-500 5-min Chart (11:00am):

SP-500 5-min Chart (11:00am):

Mar 10th, 2010: Financial Stocks Moving Up

2010-03-10T07:36:00.005-06:00

5:40pm EST: On the SP-500 daily candles chart, notice that both raw volume and on-balance volume are increasing and are above the Jan 2010 high. This is a bullish signal of strength.

SP-500 Daily Candles (EOD):

4:45pm EST: Deja Vu. Higher highs (1148 vs 1145) and higher lows (1140 vs 1137). The SP-500 have hit my initial target area of 1145/50 for wave 1-[5]. I still think there could be some extension if wave 1-[5] into the 1160/65 area. The 1160/65 target terminates near my mid-channel line on the daily SP-500 chart. I'm thinking the wave 2-[5] pull-back my be shallow. A 38% re-trace takes us back to the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline around 1116, but a 23% pull-back would only drop to about the key 1130/33 support area.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD):

11:30am EST: Here's a little bonus for the non-Alert Service subsribers. Below is my most up-to-date 5-min and 15-min charts. The PUG Alert subscribers get these updated charts a couple times per day.

SP-500 5-min Chart (11:30am):

SP-500 15-min Chart (11:30am):

8:25am EST: ES Futures were basically flat overnight. Continuing to look for more wave (5)-1-[5] extention towards the 1160 target. Financial stocks are really starting to move up and XLF is approaching a new high. This is another sign of returning strength in a bull market.

I've noticed most of the Perma-Bear E-Wave blogs have now come out with 9th Revision of their failed P2 Models predicting the SP-500 will advance to 1230 (62% re-trace). They have been calling for a P2 top since 870, 956, 1018, 1140, 1080, 1101, 1115, 1150... So now after 9 attempts at calling a top, the perma-bear bloggers finally have a P2 model that agrees with my P1 end point area of 1200 to 1260. Of course I have only had one model and this 1230 area has been my target since I opened this blog back in Oct 2009. And I will note that both the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 are now solidly beyond their 62% re-trace levels.

60-min ES Futures (EOD):

Mar 9th, 2010: Bullish Alignment

2010-03-09T10:52:00.008-06:00

4:30pm EST: Higher highs (1145 vs 1141) and higher lows (1138 vs 1135), that's what bull markets are made of. Notice the nice "V" sign on the 60-min chart. That's to show all the perma-bears who's won the latest battle, yet AGAIN. Still looking for wave 1-[5] to extend to the Inverse Head and Shoulders target area of 1160+ sometime next week; however wave 1-[5] has statisfied every measure it needed and wave 2-[5] could begin at anytime.. The detail of how the SP-500 gets there is shown on my 5-min and 15-min charts for the PUG Alert Newsletter Subscribers.

SP-500 60-min Chart (EOD):

12:15pm EST: Fortunately for my PUG Alert Newsletter Subscribers they get to view my 5-min chart this morning showing the bull-flag that formed between 1135 and 1139 that signaled a potential SP-500 break-out to the 1152/55 area was coming in wave iii-(5). Why aren't you a subscriber yet? It's easy to sign-up, just drop me an e-mail at pu_gridiron@yahoo.com.

11:45am EST: The Russel-2000 has been in a bullish alignment for the 13-day EMA vs 34-day EMA for over a week. But now the 34-day EMA has climbed above the 50-day SMA, which is further confirmation. The Russel-2000 is also showing an RSI above 70 on the daily chart, indicating a 3rd of 3rd ((3)-3-[5]) type move up. The SP-500 confirmed it's 13-day vs 34-day EMA bullish alignment last week and the index exhibited a classic "gap-and-go" in conjunction with this bullish cross. And now the SP-500 is only a few points from having the 34-day EMA break over the 50-day SMA to solidify this bullish set-up.

SP-500 Daily Candles (11:45am):

Russel-2000 Daily Candles (11:45am):

March 8th, 2010: Consolidation Day

2010-03-08T15:49:00.002-06:00

4:30pm EST: Solid consolidation day in the 1138 to 1141 area after Friday's big run up. Not much was resolved today in determination of the near term market direction. For the pimary count, I think wave (5)-1-[5] is going to consolidate above the 1132/33 gap area and then make move towards 1150+. I have an ultimate target of about 1165 for the inverse head and shoulders on the 60-min chart. The 1167 to 1175 area is a key resistance area for the SP-500 and it will likely take a future wave 3-[5] to break through this area. Also, it's very possilbe that wave (5)-1-[5] has ended at 1141, as the alternate count indicates, and there will be a wave 2-[5] retrace of a least 38% down to about 1105.

Next Wed March 16th is the FOMC meeting announcement and next Friday March 19th is OPEX. For the past year, both FOMC and OPEX weeks have been bullish in the early part of the week. So, if the SP-500 can hold support this week, there is a good chance that new highs in the 1160/65 area could be on the way as wave 1-[5] extends.

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 Bull Model (EOD):

Mar 6th, 2010: Announcement - Weekly Update Change

2010-03-06T09:29:00.008-06:00

10:20am EST: The updates to this blog will be reduced from a daily to a weekly basis going forward from Friday, March 5th, 2010. The weekly updates will typically occur after the market closes on Monday and on Friday. There will occassionally be a mid-week post if market conditions change appreciably. I will leave the comments section open after each weekly update and will repond to comments. Please feel free to share your information and comments for others to enjoy and learn from.

For those of you that are active traders and like the most up-to-date market information, the PUG Alert Newsletter Service will provide daily e-mail updates to subscribers that include my market commentary and the key 5-min and 15-min charts useful in day trading (1 to 3 days) and swing trading (3 to 10 days). The PUG Alert Newsletter Service is $25/month. In order to subscribe you will need to sign a TOS Agreement. You can e-mail me a pu_gridiron@yahoo.com to become a subscriber for the month of March and beyond.

Mar 5th, 2010: Stocks Up! Boiler Up!

2010-03-05T08:26:00.010-06:00

4:30pm EST: What a great day. My primary and alternate bullish counts for wave 1-[5]-P1 have virtually merged into one count showing the SP-500 wants to break over the Jan 2010 high of 1150. I'll leave them separate for now. The Russel-2000 set a new 2010 high earlier this week and the Nasdaq did the same thing today. The SP-500 should follow to new 2010 highs early next week. Then there will need to be some consolidation for wave 2-[5]-P1 into the 1100 to 1115 area in mid-to-late March before wave 3-[5]-P1 push towards 1200 in April. Bulls enjoy your weekend. You earned it. :-)

15-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

60-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Daily Bull Model SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 13/34-day EMA Chart (EOD):

3:05pm EST: NASDAQ set new 2010 High at 2327!!!!!!! Boo-yah! SP-500 new high above 1150+ is coming next week. On the Daily Chart, take a look at the On Balance Volume which is now higher than the Jan 2010 peak of 1150 and showing a sign of strength.

SP-500 Daily Candle Chart (3:05pm):

12:15am EST: If you like symmetry, then wave v=i at 1136 for the alternate count that has wave (5)-1-[5] ending very soon. However, any close over 1131 and I think Monday extends the run up towards 1150+. I re-calculated the wave 2-[5] fib re-tracements based on 1136 for alternate count, see the updated 15-min chart. The 2-[5] levels just keep moving up!

15-min Chart (12:45pm):

10:30am EST: The 200% short perma-bears are once again reminded what a bullish impulse feels like. :-) This wave v-(5) extension has broken through some tough resistance between 1127 and 1133. Let's see it can cosolidate here above 1130 and set the stage from more gains. There is also a new gap opened at 1125 this morning that could provide near term support. Updated 15-min and 60-min charts are below.

15-min Chart (10:00am EST):

60-min Chart (11:00am EST)

9:25am EST: ES Futures extended to 1131.70 peak on the Non-Farm Payroll news. Break and then close over 1131 today sets the stage for 1150+ by Tuesday March 9th. Watching the 1115/20 area on any pull-back today. A close under 1115 is bearish for next week and signals a wave 2-[5] retrace has begun.

8:15am EST: ES Futures hit 1128.4 overnight, which is a new high. Clearly wave (5)-1-[5] is extending as expected. Now is just a matter of how far it will extend before wave 2-[5] retraces back down. The first target for the extension is the wave v-(5) triangle target of about 1130/31.

SP-500 ES Futures 60-min (8:15am, pre Non-Farm Payroll):

Mar 4th, 2010: Next Leg of Bull Market Underway !!!

2010-03-04T10:16:00.001-06:00

5:45 pm EST: Another daily close over the key 1115 support level and above the inverse head and shoulders neckline. That's 2 days of consolidation. The stage is now set for new highs above 1150 next week. All the bulls need to do now, is to step through the curtains and onto the stage. Primary count is in white/green and is setup to make new highs over 1150+. Looks like a descending triangle wave iv-(5)-1-[5] has formed and wave (5)-1-[5] is ready to extend. The alternate count in purple says we are ready for a wave 2-[5] pull-back towards 1075/85 before making new highs in 3-[5]. Enjoy the updated charts.

15-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

60-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 Chart (EOD):

11:00am EST: I'm officially declaring the Feb 5th, 2010 low of 1045 the end of the correction for wave [4]. The SP-500 has been in wave [5], since Feb 5th, 2010 at about 3 pm EST when the large daily hammer candle was produced on the major reversal. I have been carrying this count as my Primary Count (white and green) since Feb 16th, 2010 when the SP-500 gapped up over 1080 and ran to 1094. However, I have also been carrying the [B] leg count for a large A-B-C or P2 correction to new lows in the 956 to 1010 area. Today, I'm officially declaring the alternate count dead and removing it from my charts.

My target for wave [5]-P1 is 1200 to 1250 by May/June 2010. The only question right now is does this first leg up of 1-[5]-P1 extend (alt: count in turquoise) above 1126 in the next week or do we get a wave 2-[5]-P1 correction back down towards 1075/85. I'm watching the key area of 1108/1112 and the lower trendline on my 15-min chart to make this determination.

Here are the updated charts with the alternate count for A-B-C of P2 removed. One key thing to note on the Daily 13/34-day EAM Chart without counts, is that the 13-day EMA crossed over the 34-day EMA in a bullish fashion on March 1st, 2010.

15-min SP-500 Chart (11:00am):

60-min SP-500 Chart (11:00am):

Daily SP-500 13/34-day EMA Chart (11:00am):

Daily SP-500 Daily Bull Model Chart (11:00am):

Mar 3rd, 2010: Extension?

2010-03-03T09:10:00.003-06:00

4:15pm EST: It's appropriate that I titled today's blog post "Extension", as the key to my thinking now is whether or not wave (5)-1-[5] extends higher that 1126? A close today over 1115 continues to be bullsih for a possible extension. This close is also above the Inverse Head and Shoulders neckline which targets the 1165 area.

OK, we have a pretty good looking top of wave (5)-1-[5] at 1126. It fits with a lot of things like the 78% re-trace from 1150-1045 and the wave v=i for wave (5). However, the pull-back so far as only been to 1117, which is a 23% re-trace of 1086 to 1126. So it already has hit the minimum retrace of a wave 2 and has since bounced a bit. We will need to watch to see, if key support at 1108/1112 holds, before deciding if wave (5)-1-[5] wants to extend or not.

I have re-thought what my turquoise count is all about. It's not a wave 3-[5] as I have been protraying it the last few days. That would be rushing this next bull market wave [5] phase way too much. I expect this wave [5] leg of the bull market to take several months and last into the summer. So what is it then? The ultra-bullsih torquise count is a wave (5)-1-[5] extension. As I stated above, the wave (5)-1-[5] reaching 1126 could be the end of this 1st major bull move off the Feb 5th 1045 low. And now we are ready for a corrective wave 2-[5] back down towards 1075/85 over the next couple of weeks. However, this wave (5)-1-[5] may want to extend and it could very easy extend above 1126 into the 1130's, 1140's and even 1150's by early next week. As long as the lower blue channel line is not taken out (1108 to 1112 area currently), then the wave (5) extention is on the table. As soon as that area cracks, maybe tomorrow, then it's time to give up on wave (5)-1-[5] and start playing wave 2-[5] back down towards 1075/85. Also, if wave (5)-1-[5] does extend towards 1150, then the depth of the wave 2-[5] pull-back will at higher targets closer to 1100 and of course further out in time.

15-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

60-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Daily SP-500 Chart (EOD):

11:15am EST: Daily Candles Chart showing 13-day EMA resistance now turned support after the bullish cross above the 34-day EMA.

Daily SP-500 Candles Chart (11:15am):

10:05am EST: It's looking like the this wave up off 1086, wants to continue to extend. The SP-500 has hit a higher high at 1023.89 today. The Russel-2000 has all set a new 2010 high today. I think the 1127 area will get tested today.

15-min SP-500 Chart (10:00am):

Mar 2nd, 2010: Bullish Booyah!

2010-03-02T09:04:00.005-06:00

5:00pm EST: Not much to add. The EOD charts speak for themselves. But I do think the close above the 1115 Inverse H&S neckline could indicate the SP-500 wants to keep pushing higher near term. Still like that 1127 target.

Also on the second 60-min chart I updated the possible wave [4] symmetric triangle count. Looks very good so far with A-B both being 3-wave possibilities. The C-D-E legs would keep the SP-500 range bound between 1070 to 1110 the rest of March. This consolidation could work off the bearish March cycle low projections (i.e. many cycle technical analyist think a cycle low is coming at the end of March), and then set the stage for a dramatic push up to 1200+ in late Spring early Summer. I really like this count.

15-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

60-min SP-500 Chart (EOD):

Second 60-min SP-500 Chart with Wave [4] Triangle (EOD):

3:10pm EST: This impressive bullish push up from 1086 to 1124 looks to be waning this afternoon. There could be a bearish rising wedge near completion. However, One more push to 1125/27 is possible. See the updated 15-min chart. Like I said this morning, the next significant pull-back will tell us which count we are in going forward. Looking for 1115 support first, then 1105/1110.

15-min SP-500 Chart (3:10pm):

12:00pm EST: Lots of bullish stuff going on the SP-500 Daily Candle Chart. The 13-day EMA crossing back over the 34-day EMA should now act as support as the SP-500 tries to move higher. 13-day EMA is at 1103 and rising.

Daily SP-500 Candle Chart (12:00pm):

10:00am EST: First target hit at 1121. Does it want to extend to 1127? Both bullish counts are very much alive. The primary (white) count is bullish and the seconardy (turquoise) ultra-bullish. After the SP-500 peaks, the next significant pull-back will determine which one is correct. Looking for a pull back to 1108/1110 for the turquoise count and 1083/85 for the white count.

15-min SP-500 Chart (10:00am):

March 1st, 2010: March Comes In Like A Bull

2010-03-01T10:42:00.002-06:00

5:50pm EST: The bulls rule the day and push the SP-500 over key resistance at 1108 (50-day SMA). The primary bullish count (white) has the SP-500 needing one more pust up to complete (5)-1-[5]-P1 at about 1121. The SP-500 should back down in the 1080 area over the next week or two for wave 2-[5]-P1, before heading towards new highs later this month. The even more bullish count (turquoise) has the SP-500 in wave (1)-3-[5]-P1, and after some consolidation in wave (2) around 1110/12 later this week, wave (3)-3-[5] will push the SP-500 to new highs over 1150 next week.

The bearish alternate (purple) count has a nearly complete c-[B]-P2, and is about to beging [C]-P2 down to levels at 1050 (and lower) is losing credibility the further this runs up. The Russel-2000 has now re-traced over 85% from it's Feb 5th low and looks like it will make a new 2010 high very soon. This Russel-2000 price action could be forecasting that the SP-500 is going to make a new 2010 high soon as well (i.e. indicating the turquoise count maybe right).

15-min Chart (EOD):

60-min Chart (EOD):

Daily Chart (EOD):

11:40am EST: Bullish Monday again, as the Bulls are crushing the Bears again via popped stops set at 1108/1112 level. The gap at 1115 has been touched. I'm now looking at this move as still part of the 1st 5-wave move off the 1045 low. Thus, I have the SP-50See the updated 15-min Chart. 0 still in wave (5)-1-[5]-P1. It's possible this wave (5) could extend to 1127 in the next day or two.

15-min Chart (11:30am):

Feb 28th, 2010: Copper Signaling New SP-500 Highs?

2010-02-28T19:00:00.001-06:00

8:00pm EST: Wow, Copper Futures are up over 5% this evening about to set new 2010 high. This could be Gap-and-Go for Monday. Copper could be forecasting a new SP-500 high yet to come. Copper often leads the market higher as my good friend Piotr has indicated. Piotr likes to call it Dr Copper, helping us to forecast the SP-500 direction ahead.

I also re-counted copper on the daily chart and it looks like we could be in the wave [5] to new highs.

Copper Futures 60-min Chart (2-28-10):

Copper Futures Daily Chart (2-28-10):

Feb 28th, 2010: March PUG Alert Newsletter Service

2010-02-28T14:38:00.001-06:00

3:30pm EST: March is shaping up to be a very volatile trading month. And March should set the tone for the market direction going into the summer of 2010. The PUG Alert Newsletter Service can help give you the trading edge. March service begins tomorrow morning. Sign-up today if you want to the full month benefit.

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Feb 27th, 2010: Symmetric Triangle Wave [4]?

2010-02-27T11:54:00.003-06:00

2-28-10 (11:30am): In electrical engineering when an under-damped control system receives an impulse input, the result will be an over-shoot of the control set-point followed quickly by a reversal and then an under-shoot. If you look at the 1090 area as the value the SP-500 wants to maintain, you can look at the end of 2009 year 60 point run-up as an overshoot, followed quickly by 105 drop resulting in a 45 point under-shoot. Now the market has restablized around 1090 again. It's reasonable to expect the market to consolidate arond this 1090 level again for a few weeks before making it's next directional move. There should be smaller and smaller price swings as it settles. This is exactally what a contracting sysmmetric triangle does for the stock market. It allows an impusle into the market to settle out with time.

Here is the proposed Wave [4] triangle again showing the Nov-Dec 2009 consolidation around 1090 as the level prior to the impuse and now the settleing taking place.

60-min SP-500 Triangle Wave [4] (2-28-10):

12:45pm: How about a large symmetric triangle for Wave [4]? It should be made up entirely of 3's, or A-B-C-D-E, which is 3-3-3-3-3. After discussing it with one of my followers (Indigo), I may have rushed the count a bit for the wave [4] triangle that I posted on Friday. Let's take another look with the count slowed down in time. It looks like this coming week could see a peak around 1115. And we know that OPEX (March 19th) has Max Pain at 1040 and Current Pain at 1060. So, let's say we peak at 1115 for the B-leg. Then drop towards 1060/70 for the C-leg, which would time out around OPEX week. Then one more push up to 1100 for the D-leg in late March. And then the E leg stops just below the 1090 pivot at about 1085. The triagle wave [4] measures 120 points, so if you add the 120 points to the pivot at 1090 you get a target of 1210 for the completion of wave [5] of P1 sometime in May or early June 2010.

One nice thing about a Wave [4]-P1 triangle count is that it would alternate with the Wave [2]-P1 simple Zig-Zag or A-B-C, thus satisifying a key Elliott Wave guideline.

60-min SP-500 Chart with Wave [4] Triangle: